Trucking


I always look at economics of the business
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush and the question is how sure are you there are 2 in the bush and how long you have to wait to get them out
1. How many birds are in the bush?
2. When you gonna get them out?
3. How sure are you?
If interest rates are 15% roughly you've got 2 birds out of bush in 5 years equal to bird in the hand but if interest rates are 3% and you can get 2 birds out in 20 years it still makes sense to give up the bird in the hand because it's all gets back to discounting an interest rate. Often you don't know not only how many birds in the bush but in the case of internet companies there were not any birds in the bush but they still take the bird that you give them from the hand
Loop through all the subindustries and try to understand how many birds are in the bush from the perspective of economics of the business

Revenue

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP grow per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. Hertz Global Holdings, Inc HTZ5,0744,9164,9685,2086,6767,4698,0588,6868,5257,1027,5638,2989,02110,77211,0469,0178,8038,8039,5049,779
2. Avis Budget Group, Inc CAR3,9469,02014,13318,16219,66518,2735,6895,9865,9845,1315,1855,9007,3577,9378,4852,4762,5782,6299,1249,172
3. J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT2,1602,1002,2482,4332,7863,1283,3283,4903,7323,2033,7934,5275,0555,5856,1656,1886,5557,1908,6159,165
4. Ryder System, Inc R5,3375,0064,7764,8025,1505,7416,3076,5666,2044,8875,1366,0516,2576,4196,6396,5726,7877,3308,4098,926
5. YRC Worldwide Inc YRCW3,5883,2772,6243,0696,7678,7429,9159,6218,9405,2834,3354,8694,8514,8655,0694,8324,6984,8915,0924,871
6. Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc KNX2172512863404425676647147676527313,3343,4934,1184,2994,2294,0322,4255,3444,844
7. Schneider National, Inc SNDR3,9413,9594,0464,3844,9774,747
8. Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc ODFL4765025666688241,0611,2791,4001,5381,2451,4811,8832,1102,3382,7882,9722,9923,3584,0444,109
9. Landstar System, Inc LSTR1,4181,3931,5071,5972,0212,5212,5182,4932,6462,0102,4022,6512,7952,6663,1863,3223,1693,6494,6194,090
10. AMERCO UHAL1,6831,8142,0592,1322,1682,0082,1072,0862,0491,9922,0022,2412,5032,5592,8353,0753,2763,4223,6013,7693,979
11. ArcBest Corporation ARCB1,8401,5261,4221,5271,7161,8601,8601,8371,8331,4731,6581,9082,0662,3002,6132,6672,7002,8263,0942,988
12. Werner Enterprises, Inc WERN1,2151,2711,3411,4581,6781,9722,0812,0712,1661,6661,8152,0032,0362,0292,1392,0942,0092,1172,4582,464
13. Roadrunner Transportation Systems, Inc RRTS5374506328441,0731,3611,8731,9922,0332,0912,2161,848
14. Saia, Inc SAIA7897727758279821,0988759761,0308499031,0301,0991,1391,2721,2211,2181,3791,6541,787
15. Daseke, Inc DSKE54367908461,6131,737
16. U.S. Xpress Enterprises, Inc USX1,4721,5411,4511,5551,8051,707
17. Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc ULH2532783625316426807605036067001,0371,0331,1921,1291,0731,2171,4621,512
18. Covenant Transportation Group, Inc CVTI552547564582604643684713774589650653674685719724671705885895
19. Marten Transport, Ltd MRTN261283293335380460519560607506517604638659673665671698788843
20. Heartland Express, Inc HTLD275295341405457524572592626460500529546582871736613607611597
21. USA Truck, Inc USAK227252274299363440466482536382460519512555602508429447534523
22. P.A.M. Transportation Services, Inc PTSI205226264294325361400409407292332359381403411417433438533514
23. ENTREC Corporation ENTCF32134200200166114149173180
24. Titanium Transportation Group Inc TTTGF62110117130185167
25. Patriot Transportation Holding, Inc PATI11212912312011211410989
26. Rideshare Rental, Inc YAYO00.243.296.91
27. Enigma-Bulwark, Limited PTSS0.040.390.4000.260.01
28. African Discovery Group, Inc EACR2.0302.142.23.53.222.773.114.05
29. American Commerce Solutions, Inc AACS0.272.111.942.212.082.752.32.352.852.592.352.282.452.352.672.242.05


Revenue Growth

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP growth per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. Hertz Global Holdings, Inc HTZ0.970.971.011.051.281.121.081.080.980.831.061.11.091.191.030.820.9811.081.03
2. Avis Budget Group, Inc CAR2.292.291.571.291.080.930.311.0510.861.011.141.251.081.070.291.041.023.471.01
3. J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT0.970.971.071.081.141.121.061.051.070.861.181.191.121.11.111.061.11.21.06
4. Ryder System, Inc R0.940.940.951.011.071.111.11.040.940.791.051.181.031.031.030.991.031.081.151.06
5. YRC Worldwide Inc YRCW0.910.910.81.172.211.291.130.970.930.590.821.12111.040.950.971.041.040.96
6. Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc KNX1.161.161.141.191.31.281.171.071.070.851.124.561.051.181.040.980.950.62.20.91
7. Schneider National, Inc SNDR111.021.081.140.95
8. Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc ODFL1.061.061.131.181.231.291.211.091.10.811.191.271.121.111.191.071.011.121.21.02
9. Landstar System, Inc LSTR0.980.981.081.061.271.2510.991.060.761.191.11.050.951.191.040.951.151.270.89
10. AMERCO UHAL1.081.081.141.041.020.931.050.990.980.9711.121.121.021.111.081.071.041.051.051.06
11. ArcBest Corporation ARCB0.830.830.931.071.121.0810.9910.81.131.151.081.111.141.021.011.051.090.97
12. Werner Enterprises, Inc WERN1.051.051.061.091.151.181.0611.050.771.091.11.0211.050.980.961.051.161
13. Roadrunner Transportation Systems, Inc RRTS0.840.841.41.331.271.271.381.061.021.031.060.83
14. Saia, Inc SAIA0.980.9811.071.191.120.81.121.060.821.061.141.071.041.120.9611.131.21.08
15. Daseke, Inc DSKE1.251.250INF1.911.08
16. U.S. Xpress Enterprises, Inc USX1.051.050.941.071.160.95
17. Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc ULH1.11.11.31.471.211.061.120.661.21.151.4811.150.950.951.131.21.03
18. Covenant Transportation Group, Inc CVTI0.990.991.031.031.041.071.061.041.090.761.111.031.021.051.010.931.051.261.01
19. Marten Transport, Ltd MRTN1.081.081.041.141.141.211.131.081.080.831.021.171.061.031.020.991.011.041.131.07
20. Heartland Express, Inc HTLD1.071.071.161.191.131.151.091.031.060.731.091.061.031.071.50.850.830.991.010.98
21. USA Truck, Inc USAK1.111.111.081.091.221.211.061.041.110.711.21.130.991.081.090.840.841.041.20.98
22. P.A.M. Transportation Services, Inc PTSI1.11.11.171.111.111.111.111.020.990.721.141.081.061.061.021.011.041.011.220.96
23. ENTREC Corporation ENTCF4.214.211.510.830.691.31.161.04
24. Titanium Transportation Group Inc TTTGF1.791.791.061.111.430.9
25. Patriot Transportation Holding, Inc PATI1.151.150.950.980.931.020.950.82
26. Rideshare Rental, Inc YAYOINFINF13.962.1
27. Enigma-Bulwark, Limited PTSS11.0611.061.0401.26105.410.03
28. African Discovery Group, Inc EACR00INF1.031.590.920.861.121.3
29. American Commerce Solutions, Inc AACS7.757.750.921.140.941.320.841.021.210.910.910.971.070.961.130.840.92