Specialty Stores


I always look at economics of the business
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush and the question is how sure are you there are 2 in the bush and how long you have to wait to get them out
1. How many birds are in the bush?
2. When you gonna get them out?
3. How sure are you?
If interest rates are 15% roughly you've got 2 birds out of bush in 5 years equal to bird in the hand but if interest rates are 3% and you can get 2 birds out in 20 years it still makes sense to give up the bird in the hand because it's all gets back to discounting an interest rate. Often you don't know not only how many birds in the bush but in the case of internet companies there were not any birds in the bush but they still take the bird that you give them from the hand
Loop through all the subindustries and try to understand how many birds are in the bush from the perspective of economics of the business

Revenue

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP grow per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. The ODP Corporation ODP11,57011,15411,35712,35913,56514,27915,01115,52814,49612,14411,63311,49010,69611,24216,09614,48511,02110,24011,01510,647
2. DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS8931,0751,2731,4712,1092,6253,1143,8884,1304,4134,8715,2265,8046,2136,8147,2717,9228,5908,4378,751
3. Tractor Supply Company TSCO7598501,2101,4731,7392,0682,3702,7033,0083,2073,6384,2334,6645,1655,7126,2276,7807,2567,9118,352
4. Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA5797559121,0851,2231,4551,7762,2202,6713,2413,9244,8555,8856,7177,398
5. Signet Jewelers Limited SIG1,8392,0312,2242,6502,9433,0403,1983,8163,7743,4593,4063,4373,7494,1434,2095,7366,5506,4086,2546,0806,137
6. The Michaels Companies, Inc MIK1,8832,2492,5312,8563,0913,3933,6763,8653,8623,8173,8884,0314,2104,4084,5704,7384,9135,1975,3625,2725,072
7. Tiffany & Co TIF1,4621,6681,6071,7072,0002,2052,3952,6482,9392,8602,7103,0853,6433,7944,0314,2504,1054,0024,1704,4424,424
8. Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc SBH2,0982,2542,3732,5142,6482,6372,9163,2693,5243,6223,7543,8343,9533,9383,9333,8763,514
9. Party City Holdco Inc PRTY2,0452,2712,2952,2832,3722,4282,349
10. Barnes & Noble Education, Inc BNED1,7631,7481,7731,8081,8742,2042,0351,8511,851
11. Hudson Ltd HUD1,1191,4031,6871,8031,9241,954
12. National Vision Holdings, Inc EYE9331,0631,1961,3751,5371,724
13. Five Below, Inc FIVE1972974195356808321,0001,2781,5601,847
14. MarineMax, Inc HZO5515045416087629471,2141,2568855894504815245856257519421,0521,1771,2371,510
15. Indigo Books & Music Inc IDGBF4564344605316156517277568997469541,0499438787851,3269941,0201,0801,0470
16. Hibbett Sports, Inc HIBB1742102412793213784405125215645936657338198529139439739681,0091,184
17. Big 5 Sporting Goods Corporation BGFV5716226677107828148778988658968989029409939781,0291,0211,010988997
18. The Container Store Group, Inc TCS634707749782795831820857895916
19. Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings, Inc SPWH527643660730780810849886
20. Kaspien Holdings Inc KSPN1,3581,4151,3881,2821,3311,3651,2381,4711,266988814652543459394358335353443418326
21. Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc BBW16921430236243747446839440139438137939237836430358337339
22. DAVIDsTEA Inc DTEA9771181216224213196
23. Western Capital Resources, Inc WCRS2733417699112114117
24. Winmark Corporation WINA4836333127272731353741505256616967707373
25. Bowlin Travel Centers, Inc BWTL2322212428282825232628282829242426280
26. FFP Marketing Company, Inc FFPM542501
27. Islet Holdings, Inc ISHI0.730.64
28. Calloway's Nursery, Inc CLWY54434347484747464438444746475450515557
29. Nebraska Book Holdings, Inc NEEB4584001141038979
30. Her Imports HHER1.52.513.9713.2913.5716.0712.14
31. PreVu, Inc PRVU544637720572521441398321280
32. Gepco, Ltd GEPC000


Revenue Growth

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP growth per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. The ODP Corporation ODP0.960.961.021.091.11.051.051.030.930.840.960.990.931.051.430.90.760.931.080.97
2. DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS1.21.21.181.161.431.241.191.251.061.071.11.071.111.071.11.071.091.080.981.04
3. Tractor Supply Company TSCO1.121.121.421.221.181.191.151.141.111.071.131.161.11.111.111.091.091.071.091.06
4. Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA1.31.31.211.191.131.191.221.251.21.211.211.241.211.141.1
5. Signet Jewelers Limited SIG1.11.11.11.191.111.031.051.190.990.920.981.011.091.111.021.361.140.980.980.971.01
6. The Michaels Companies, Inc MIK1.191.191.131.131.081.11.081.0510.991.021.041.041.051.041.041.041.061.030.980.96
7. Tiffany & Co TIF1.141.140.961.061.171.11.091.111.110.970.951.141.181.041.061.050.970.971.041.071
8. Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc SBH1.071.071.051.061.0511.111.121.081.031.041.021.03110.990.91
9. Party City Holdco Inc PRTY1.111.111.0111.041.020.97
10. Barnes & Noble Education, Inc BNED0.990.991.011.021.041.180.920.911
11. Hudson Ltd HUD1.251.251.21.071.071.02
12. National Vision Holdings, Inc EYE1.141.141.131.151.121.12
13. Five Below, Inc FIVE1.511.511.411.281.271.221.21.281.221.18
14. MarineMax, Inc HZO0.920.921.071.121.251.241.281.030.70.660.771.071.091.111.071.21.251.121.121.051.22
15. Indigo Books & Music Inc IDGBF0.950.951.061.151.161.061.121.041.190.831.281.10.90.930.891.690.751.031.060.970
16. Hibbett Sports, Inc HIBB1.21.21.151.161.151.181.171.161.021.081.051.121.11.121.041.071.031.0311.041.17
17. Big 5 Sporting Goods Corporation BGFV1.091.091.071.061.11.041.081.020.961.0411.011.041.060.981.050.990.990.981.01
18. The Container Store Group, Inc TCS1.121.121.061.041.021.050.991.051.041.02
19. Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings, Inc SPWH1.221.221.031.111.071.041.051.04
20. Kaspien Holdings Inc KSPN1.041.040.980.921.041.030.911.190.860.780.820.80.830.850.860.910.931.061.250.940.78
21. Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc BBW1.261.261.411.21.211.090.990.841.020.980.9711.040.960.960.0811.840.941.01
22. DAVIDsTEA Inc DTEA0.730.732.531.21.040.950.92
23. Western Capital Resources, Inc WCRS1.241.241.241.881.31.131.021.02
24. Winmark Corporation WINA0.760.760.930.930.870.981.031.141.141.051.11.221.031.071.11.140.961.051.041.01
25. Bowlin Travel Centers, Inc BWTL0.960.960.971.11.1711.020.880.931.131.061.021.011.020.840.991.081.10
26. FFP Marketing Company, Inc FFPM1.221.221.490.92
27. Islet Holdings, Inc ISHI0.930.930.680.88
28. Calloway's Nursery, Inc CLWY0.810.8111.091.020.980.9910.950.851.161.060.981.021.150.931.021.091.02
29. Nebraska Book Holdings, Inc NEEB0.870.870.280.910.860.88
30. Her Imports HHER1.681.681.583.351.021.180.76
31. PreVu, Inc PRVU1.171.171.130.790.910.850.90.810.87
32. Gepco, Ltd GEPCNANNANNAN