Restaurants


I always look at economics of the business
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush and the question is how sure are you there are 2 in the bush and how long you have to wait to get them out
1. How many birds are in the bush?
2. When you gonna get them out?
3. How sure are you?
If interest rates are 15% roughly you've got 2 birds out of bush in 5 years equal to bird in the hand but if interest rates are 3% and you can get 2 birds out in 20 years it still makes sense to give up the bird in the hand because it's all gets back to discounting an interest rate. Often you don't know not only how many birds in the bush but in the case of internet companies there were not any birds in the bush but they still take the bird that you give them from the hand
Loop through all the subindustries and try to understand how many birds are in the bush from the perspective of economics of the business

Revenue

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP grow per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. Starbucks Corporation SBUX2,1692,6493,2894,0765,2946,3697,7879,41210,3839,77510,70711,70013,51015,14416,71619,41321,63422,77825,02126,80723,518
2. Sodexo S.A SDXAY10,85612,36412,83914,00314,39216,42618,29119,99121,08019,39623,11722,93724,27723,69122,22220,24520,69820,40721,95419,322
3. McDonald's Corporation MCD14,24314,87015,40617,14119,06520,46021,58622,78723,52222,74524,07527,00627,56728,10627,44125,41324,62222,82021,02521,077
4. Aramark ARMK13,50513,94614,83314,32914,41614,60415,79016,22712,830
5. Yum China Holdings, Inc YUMC6,9056,9346,9096,7527,1448,4158,776
6. Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI3,7014,0214,3694,6555,0035,2785,7215,5676,6277,2187,1137,5007,9998,5526,2866,7646,9347,1708,0808,5107,807
7. Restaurant Brands International Limited Partnership RSTRF1,1461,1974,0524,1464,5765,3575,603
8. Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR1,7541,9402,0482,2342,4552,5372,5022,3361,9661,1461,1974,0524,1464,5765,3575,603
9. Yum! Brands, Inc YUM7,0936,9537,7578,3809,0119,3499,56110,41611,28610,86811,34312,62613,63313,08413,27913,1056,3665,8785,6885,597
10. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG3164716288231,0861,3301,5181,8362,2702,7313,2154,1084,5013,9044,4764,8655,586
11. Bloomin' Brands, Inc BLMN3,6283,8413,9884,1294,4434,3784,2524,2134,1264,139
12. Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ1,2751,3331,4471,5121,4371,4631,4251,4041,5711,6521,6781,8021,9942,2172,4732,7883,4333,619
13. Brinker International, Inc EAT2,1602,4742,8873,2853,7073,9134,1514,3774,2353,6212,8592,7612,8212,8462,9053,0023,2573,1513,1353,2183,079
14. Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc CBRL1,7731,9642,0672,1982,3812,5682,6432,3522,3852,3672,4052,4342,5802,6452,6842,8422,9122,9263,0303,0722,523
15. Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc ARCO2,6653,0183,6583,7974,0333,6513,0532,9293,3203,0822,959
16. Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH2332863634595977358809421,0051,1091,2631,4231,5821,8071,9912,2202,4572,756
17. The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated CAKE4385396527749691,1821,3151,5121,6061,6021,6591,7581,8091,8781,9772,1012,2762,2612,3322,483
18. The Wendy's Company WEN8792982943297271,2431,2641,8233,5813,4162,4312,5052,4872,0611,8701,4351,2231,5901,709
19. Papa John's International, Inc PZZA9459719469179429691,0021,0641,1321,1061,1261,2181,3431,4391,5981,6371,7141,7831,5731,619
20. Carrols Restaurant Group, Inc TAST7077517898168167968225406636938599441,0891,1791,463
21. Dunkin' Brands Group, Inc DNKN5776256817327498118438761,3371,388
22. Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc RRGB1892242743294094866197638698418619159771,0171,1461,2581,2961,3811,3391,315
23. Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc PLAY2473323583743633906086367478671,0051,1401,2651,355
24. BJ's Restaurants, Inc BJRI5265761031291782393163744275146217087758469209931,0321,1171,161
25. Jack in the Box Inc JACK1,6331,8341,9662,0582,3222,5072,7662,8762,5402,4712,2982,1931,5451,4901,4841,5401,5991,5548709501,022
26. Dine Brands Global, Inc DIN3033243664053593483504851,6141,4141,3331,075850640655681634605781910
27. Biglari Holdings Inc BH406445459499554607639654610627674709740756794828861850840810669
28. Fiesta Restaurant Group, Inc FRGI439475510551611687712669689661
29. Shake Shack Inc SHAK5782119191268359459595
30. Denny's Corporation DENN1,1551,040949941960979994939760608548539488463472491507529630541
31. Del Taco Restaurants, Inc TACO0209424452471505513
32. Ruth's Hospitality Group, Inc RUTH192215271319406345358370399407346373386415452468
33. Meritage Hospitality Group Inc MHGU33384649535658595869799299138160210236313435468
34. Noodles & Company NDLS256300351404455487456458462
35. El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc LOCO294315345355380402436442
36. Chuy's Holdings, Inc CHUY6995131173204245287331370398426
37. Potbelly Corporation PBPB238275300327373407428423410
38. Luby's, Inc LUB493467399319309322325320318293245349350390394394403376365323214
39. J. Alexander's Holdings, Inc JAX889199107123127138141140144149157188202218220233242247
40. Wingstop Inc WING59677891106153200
41. Ark Restaurants Corp ARKR120127115116116116116124125115118139138131139146150154160161
42. The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc STKS0464961728086121
43. Flanigan's Enterprises, Inc BDL25264140464955616467707277839099104107114116
44. Good Times Restaurants Inc GTIM14.8116.6517.5415.4815.7816.9621252624212119.71232844647999111
45. Nathan's Famous, Inc NATH3846423330334045464850566672839910097104102103
46. Kura Sushi USA, Inc KRUS37526445
47. Pizza Pizza Royalty Corp PZRIF00000303230283535363536
48. Aegis Brands Inc SCUPF000013.3825252726243730242627
49. Star Buffet, Inc STRZ9994837568655659699878533935282325262726
50. FAT Brands Inc FAT9.568.462.1718.3723
51. Freshii Inc FRHHF7.71911.116.1218.252222
52. RAVE Restaurant Group, Inc RAVE6663655860555047504441430.040.044248615715.1212.329.99
53. Noble Roman's, Inc NROM5.565.756.657.787.918.439.4911.579.047.557.277.387.37.537.927.737.849.8412.4511.7
54. West Coast Ventures Group Corp WCVC0002.462.723.053.64
55. Diversified Royalty Corp BEVFF5.3414.71315421259.4116.656.81273302902.7914.151.972.721.642.9
56. U-Swirl, Inc SWRL0.671.342.612.643.385.537.5
57. MTY Food Group Inc MTYFF19.62312849657797951021451912764120
58. Harrison Vickers and Waterman Inc HVCW000.151.77
59. Ambassador Food Services Corp ABDR17.1411.276.385.865.34
60. Giggles N' Hugs, Inc GIGL1.121.352.263.343.453.022.452.43
61. Hiru Corporation HIRU2182124
62. Luckin Coffee Inc LK0841
63. Granite City Food & Brewery, Ltd GCFB4.118.8912.2914.623136587696868993121134136151150141134
64. Ultimate Franchise Systems Inc ULFS4.493.923.332.463.29
65. American Restaurant Partners, L.P ICTPU61636972
66. California Beach Restaurants, Inc CBHR13.3814.0212.8
67. Spot Coffee (Canada) Ltd SCFFF6.877.486.889.329.788.538.50
68. Aerofoam Metals Inc AFML20
69. Enzyme Environmental Solutions, Inc EESO16.2314.360.1
70. Big Buck Brewery & Steakhouse, Inc BBUCQ16.6417.4916.39
71. iPic Entertainment Inc IPIC100125139148


Revenue Growth

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP growth per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. Starbucks Corporation SBUX1.221.221.241.241.31.21.221.211.10.941.11.091.151.121.11.161.111.051.11.070.88
2. Sodexo S.A SDXAY1.141.141.041.091.031.141.111.091.050.921.190.991.060.980.940.911.020.991.080.88
3. McDonald's Corporation MCD1.041.041.041.111.111.071.061.061.030.971.061.121.021.020.980.930.970.930.921
4. Aramark ARMK1.031.031.060.971.011.011.081.030.79
5. Yum China Holdings, Inc YUMC1110.981.061.181.04
6. Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI1.091.091.091.071.071.051.080.971.191.090.991.051.071.070.731.081.031.031.131.050.92
7. Restaurant Brands International Limited Partnership RSTRF1.041.043.381.021.11.171.05
8. Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR1.111.111.061.091.11.030.990.930.840.581.043.381.021.11.171.05
9. Yum! Brands, Inc YUM0.980.981.121.081.081.041.021.091.080.961.041.111.080.961.010.990.490.920.970.98
10. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG1.491.491.331.311.321.221.141.211.241.21.181.281.10.871.151.091.15
11. Bloomin' Brands, Inc BLMN1.061.061.041.041.080.990.970.990.981
12. Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ1.051.051.081.050.951.020.970.991.121.051.021.071.111.111.121.131.231.05
13. Brinker International, Inc EAT1.151.151.171.141.131.061.061.050.970.850.790.971.021.011.021.031.090.9711.030.96
14. Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc CBRL1.111.111.051.061.081.081.030.891.010.991.021.011.061.021.011.061.0211.041.010.82
15. Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc ARCO1.131.131.211.041.060.910.840.961.130.930.96
16. Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH1.231.231.271.261.31.231.21.071.071.11.141.131.111.141.11.111.111.12
17. The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated CAKE1.231.231.211.191.251.221.111.151.0611.041.061.031.041.051.061.080.991.031.06
18. The Wendy's Company WEN1.061.061.0631.122.211.711.021.441.960.950.711.030.990.830.910.770.851.31.07
19. Papa John's International, Inc PZZA1.031.030.970.971.031.031.031.061.060.981.021.081.11.071.111.021.051.040.881.03
20. Carrols Restaurant Group, Inc TAST1.061.061.051.0310.981.030.661.231.041.241.11.151.081.24
21. Dunkin' Brands Group, Inc DNKN1.081.081.091.081.021.081.041.041.531.04
22. Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc RRGB1.191.191.221.21.241.191.271.231.140.971.021.061.071.041.131.11.031.070.970.98
23. Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc PLAY1.341.341.081.040.971.081.561.051.171.161.161.131.111.07
24. BJ's Restaurants, Inc BJRI1.241.241.171.361.251.381.341.321.181.141.21.211.141.091.091.091.081.041.081.04
25. Jack in the Box Inc JACK1.121.121.071.051.131.081.11.040.880.970.930.950.70.9611.041.040.970.561.091.08
26. Dine Brands Global, Inc DIN1.071.071.131.110.890.9711.393.330.880.940.810.790.751.021.040.930.951.291.17
27. Biglari Holdings Inc BH1.11.11.031.091.111.11.051.020.931.031.071.051.041.021.051.041.040.990.990.960.83
28. Fiesta Restaurant Group, Inc FRGI1.081.081.071.081.111.121.040.941.030.96
29. Shake Shack Inc SHAK1.451.451.441.611.411.341.281.29
30. Denny's Corporation DENN0.90.90.910.991.021.021.020.940.810.80.90.980.910.951.021.041.031.041.190.86
31. Del Taco Restaurants, Inc TACOINFINF2.031.071.041.071.01
32. Ruth's Hospitality Group, Inc RUTH1.121.121.271.181.270.851.041.031.081.020.851.081.031.071.091.03
33. Meritage Hospitality Group Inc MHGU1.161.161.21.061.11.051.031.030.981.191.141.171.081.391.161.311.121.331.391.07
34. Noodles & Company NDLS1.171.171.171.151.131.070.9411.01
35. El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc LOCO1.071.071.11.031.071.061.081.01
36. Chuy's Holdings, Inc CHUY1.371.371.381.321.181.21.171.151.121.081.07
37. Potbelly Corporation PBPB1.161.161.091.091.141.091.050.990.97
38. Luby's, Inc LUB0.950.950.850.80.971.041.010.990.990.920.841.4211.111.0111.020.930.970.890.66
39. J. Alexander's Holdings, Inc JAX1.041.041.081.081.151.031.091.030.991.031.031.051.21.071.081.011.061.041.02
40. Wingstop Inc WING1.141.141.161.171.161.451.3
41. Ark Restaurants Corp ARKR1.061.060.9111111.071.010.921.021.180.990.951.071.051.031.021.041.01
42. The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc STKSINFINF1.071.231.21.11.071.41
43. Flanigan's Enterprises, Inc BDL1.061.061.560.991.141.071.121.111.051.041.041.031.071.071.081.11.051.031.061.02
44. Good Times Restaurants Inc GTIM1.121.121.050.881.021.071.231.191.040.920.880.990.961.161.221.571.461.231.251.12
45. Nathan's Famous, Inc NATH1.21.20.930.790.91.111.21.121.031.041.041.131.171.081.161.21.010.961.080.981.01
46. Kura Sushi USA, Inc KRUS1.391.391.240.7
47. Pizza Pizza Royalty Corp PZRIFNANNANNANNANNANINF1.060.950.941.231.021.010.991.02
48. Aegis Brands Inc SCUPFNANNANNANNANINF1.890.971.080.960.951.540.810.781.091.05
49. Star Buffet, Inc STRZ0.950.950.880.90.910.950.871.041.171.420.80.680.740.890.790.841.051.061.020.98
50. FAT Brands Inc FAT0.880.880.268.451.23
51. Freshii Inc FRHHF1.171.171.231.451.131.191.03
52. RAVE Restaurant Group, Inc RAVE0.960.961.030.891.030.920.910.931.050.890.931.0500.971008.71.141.260.940.260.810.81
53. Noble Roman's, Inc NROM1.031.031.161.171.021.071.131.220.780.840.961.010.991.031.050.981.011.261.270.94
54. West Coast Ventures Group Corp WCVCNANNANNANINF1.111.121.19
55. Diversified Royalty Corp BEVFF2.762.762.081.760.391.190.381.770.413.921.230INF0INF5.070.141.380.61.77
56. U-Swirl, Inc SWRL2.022.021.941.011.281.641.36
57. MTY Food Group Inc MTYFF1.561.560.91.771.331.181.260.981.071.431.321.441.490
58. Harrison Vickers and Waterman Inc HVCWNANNANINF11.92
59. Ambassador Food Services Corp ABDR0.660.660.570.920.91
60. Giggles N' Hugs, Inc GIGL1.211.211.681.481.030.880.810.99
61. Hiru Corporation HIRU0.930.930.910.11.15
62. Luckin Coffee Inc LK3013783.833013783.83
63. Granite City Food & Brewery, Ltd GCFB2.162.161.381.192.11.181.611.31.270.891.041.041.31.111.011.1110.940.95
64. Ultimate Franchise Systems Inc ULFS0.870.870.850.741.34
65. American Restaurant Partners, L.P ICTPU1.051.051.11.04
66. California Beach Restaurants, Inc CBHR0.980.981.050.91
67. Spot Coffee (Canada) Ltd SCFFF1.091.090.921.351.050.8710
68. Aerofoam Metals Inc AFML1.181.181.05
69. Enzyme Environmental Solutions, Inc EESO0.940.940.80.880.01
70. Big Buck Brewery & Steakhouse, Inc BBUCQ1.21.21.050.94
71. iPic Entertainment Inc IPIC1.251.251.121.06