Railroads


I always look at economics of the business
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush and the question is how sure are you there are 2 in the bush and how long you have to wait to get them out
1. How many birds are in the bush?
2. When you gonna get them out?
3. How sure are you?
If interest rates are 15% roughly you've got 2 birds out of bush in 5 years equal to bird in the hand but if interest rates are 3% and you can get 2 birds out in 20 years it still makes sense to give up the bird in the hand because it's all gets back to discounting an interest rate. Often you don't know not only how many birds in the bush but in the case of internet companies there were not any birds in the bush but they still take the bird that you give them from the hand
Loop through all the subindustries and try to understand how many birds are in the bush from the perspective of economics of the business

Revenue

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP grow per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. MTR Corporation Limited MTCPY9749749869771,0741,1811,2261,3702,2742,4243,7944,3044,6114,9925,17941,70145,18955,44053,93054,504
2. Union Pacific Corporation UNP11,87811,97312,49111,55112,21513,57815,57816,28317,97014,14316,96519,55720,92621,96323,98821,81319,94121,24022,83221,708
3. Guangshen Railway Company Limited GSH2392593042923674064611,4411,7131,8152,0432,3342,4222,61038415,72517,28118,33119,82821,178
4. Canadian National Railway Company CNI3,6503,5503,8854,5375,4436,2096,6187,9236,9717,0038,3228,8549,9989,95510,44112,61112,03713,04114,32114,917
5. CSX Corporation CSX8,1918,1108,1527,7938,0208,6189,56610,03011,2559,04110,63611,74311,75612,02612,66911,81111,06911,40812,25011,937
6. Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC6,1596,1706,2706,4687,3128,4729,4079,40610,6617,9699,51611,17211,04011,24511,62410,5119,88810,55111,45811,296
7. Canadian Pacific Railway Limited CP10,7932,3232,3312,8223,2443,7463,9314,7234,0534,0904,9965,0775,7405,7735,6976,7126,2326,5547,3167,792
8. Kansas City Southern KSU5725775665816401,3521,6601,7431,8521,4801,8152,0982,2392,3692,5772,4192,3972,6272,7522,866


Revenue Growth

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP growth per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. MTR Corporation Limited MTCPY111.010.991.11.11.041.121.661.071.561.131.071.081.048.051.081.230.971.01
2. Union Pacific Corporation UNP1.011.011.040.921.061.111.151.051.10.791.21.151.071.051.090.910.911.071.070.95
3. Guangshen Railway Company Limited GSH1.091.091.170.961.261.111.133.131.191.061.131.141.041.080.1540.911.11.061.081.07
4. Canadian National Railway Company CNI0.970.971.091.171.21.141.071.20.8811.191.061.1311.051.210.951.081.11.04
5. CSX Corporation CSX0.990.991.010.961.031.071.111.051.120.81.181.111.021.050.930.941.031.070.97
6. Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC111.021.031.131.161.1111.130.751.191.170.991.021.030.90.941.071.090.99
7. Canadian Pacific Railway Limited CP0.220.2211.211.151.151.051.20.861.011.221.021.131.010.991.180.931.051.121.07
8. Kansas City Southern KSU1.011.010.981.031.12.111.231.051.060.81.231.161.071.061.090.940.991.11.051.04