Paper Packaging


I always look at economics of the business
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush and the question is how sure are you there are 2 in the bush and how long you have to wait to get them out
1. How many birds are in the bush?
2. When you gonna get them out?
3. How sure are you?
If interest rates are 15% roughly you've got 2 birds out of bush in 5 years equal to bird in the hand but if interest rates are 3% and you can get 2 birds out in 20 years it still makes sense to give up the bird in the hand because it's all gets back to discounting an interest rate. Often you don't know not only how many birds in the bush but in the case of internet companies there were not any birds in the bush but they still take the bird that you give them from the hand
Loop through all the subindustries and try to understand how many birds are in the bush from the perspective of economics of the business

Revenue

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP grow per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. International Paper Company IP28,18026,36324,97625,17925,54824,09721,99521,89024,82923,36625,17926,03427,83329,08023,61722,36521,07921,74323,30622,376
2. WestRock Company WRK1,4631,4421,4371,4331,5811,7332,1382,3162,8392,8123,0015,4009,2089,5459,89511,12514,17214,86016,28518,28917,579
3. Avery Dennison Corporation AVY3,8943,8034,2074,7635,3415,4745,5766,3086,7105,9536,5136,0266,0366,1406,3305,9676,0876,6147,1597,070
4. Packaging Corporation of America PKG1,9221,7901,7361,7361,8901,9942,1872,3162,3602,1482,4362,6202,8443,6655,8535,7425,7795,7796,4457,0156,964
5. Graphic Packaging Holding Company GPK1,1291,2501,2471,6832,3872,3842,4132,4214,0794,0964,0954,2064,3374,4784,2414,1604,2984,4046,0236,160
6. Sonoco Products Company SON2,7112,6062,8122,7583,1553,5293,6574,0404,1223,5974,1244,4994,7864,8485,0174,9644,7835,0375,3915,374
7. Cascades Inc CADNF1,9211,8992,1462,4882,7052,9672,9143,9423,3013,6853,9713,5553,6743,6233,0643,8614,0014,3214,6494,996
8. Sealed Air Corporation SEE3,0683,0673,2043,5323,7984,0854,3284,6514,8444,2434,4965,6417,6487,7147,7517,0326,7785,1024,7764,760
9. UFP Technologies, Inc UFPT746261616984949411099121127131139139139146148190198
10. International Dispensing Corporation IDND0.470.420.470.390.330.350.42
11. Imaflex Inc IFLXF3243444745464746485352697488860


Revenue Growth

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP growth per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. International Paper Company IP0.940.940.951.011.010.940.9111.130.941.081.031.071.040.810.950.941.031.070.96
2. WestRock Company WRK0.990.99111.11.11.231.081.230.991.071.81.711.041.041.121.271.051.11.120.96
3. Avery Dennison Corporation AVY0.980.981.111.131.121.021.021.131.060.891.090.9311.021.030.941.021.091.080.99
4. Packaging Corporation of America PKG0.930.930.9711.091.051.11.061.020.911.131.081.091.291.60.981.0111.121.090.99
5. Graphic Packaging Holding Company GPK1.111.1111.351.4211.0111.68111.031.031.030.950.981.031.021.371.02
6. Sonoco Products Company SON0.960.961.080.981.141.121.041.11.020.871.151.091.061.011.030.990.961.051.071
7. Cascades Inc CADNF0.990.991.131.161.091.10.981.350.841.121.080.91.030.990.851.261.041.081.081.07
8. Sealed Air Corporation SEE111.041.11.081.081.061.071.040.881.061.251.361.0110.910.960.750.941
9. UFP Technologies, Inc UFPT0.830.830.9911.131.221.1211.180.91.221.051.031.06111.051.011.291.04
10. International Dispensing Corporation IDND0.890.891.110.840.841.061.2
11. Imaflex Inc IFLXF1.321.321.041.060.951.021.020.991.031.110.991.321.061.20.980