Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing


I always look at economics of the business
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush and the question is how sure are you there are 2 in the bush and how long you have to wait to get them out
1. How many birds are in the bush?
2. When you gonna get them out?
3. How sure are you?
If interest rates are 15% roughly you've got 2 birds out of bush in 5 years equal to bird in the hand but if interest rates are 3% and you can get 2 birds out in 20 years it still makes sense to give up the bird in the hand because it's all gets back to discounting an interest rate. Often you don't know not only how many birds in the bush but in the case of internet companies there were not any birds in the bush but they still take the bird that you give them from the hand
Loop through all the subindustries and try to understand how many birds are in the bush from the perspective of economics of the business

Revenue

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP grow per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC40,60657,27978,63882,446100,20297,99172,14663,18675,04996,900124,650
2. Valero Energy Corporation VLO14,67114,98826,97637,96953,91981,36291,05194,526118,29868,14482,233125,987139,250138,074130,84487,80475,65993,980117,033108,324
3. Phillips 66 PSX132,872182,133179,460171,596161,21298,97584,279102,354111,461107,293
4. World Fuel Services Corporation INT1,5291,3651,5472,6625,6548,73410,78513,73018,50911,29519,13134,62338,94541,56243,38630,38027,01633,69639,75036,819
5. PBF Energy Inc PBF21114,96020,13919,15119,82813,12415,92021,78727,18624,508
6. Cosan Limited CZZ1,0971,6791,4912,9268,28311,09113,25514,8522,9142612,35612,51813,57916,83520,611
7. Parkland Corporation PKIUF2772924375717511,0291,7031,9301,9202,9223,9044,1665,3316,4786,3006,2669,56114,44218,453
8. HollyFrontier Corporation HFC9661,1428891,4032,2463,2134,0234,7925,8684,8348,32315,44020,09120,16119,76413,23810,53614,25117,71517,487
9. Delek US Holdings, Inc DK8582,0323,2084,0974,6152,6673,7567,1988,7278,7078,3244,7824,1987,26710,2339,298
10. CVR Energy, Inc CVI3,0382,9675,0163,1364,0805,0298,5678,9869,1105,4334,7825,9887,1246,364
11. Par Pacific Holdings, Inc PARR12.368.324369517716427110914864258863,1082,0661,8652,4433,4115,402
12. Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P CLMT4305401,2891,6411,6382,4891,8472,1913,1354,6575,4215,7914,2133,5994,0003,4983,447
13. Renewable Energy Group, Inc REGI1322168241,0151,4981,2741,3872,0412,1582,3832,641
14. Green Plains Inc GPRE01891,3042,1333,5543,4773,0413,2362,9573,4033,5903,8432,417
15. Adams Resources & Energy, Inc AE7,0224,7172,3231,7222,0702,3652,2472,6364,1601,9432,2123,2143,3813,9464,1331,9441,1001,3221,7501,811
16. NuStar Energy L.P NS92991181812216601,1361,4754,8293,8564,4036,5755,9563,4643,0752,0841,7571,8141,9621,498
17. Pacific Ethanol, Inc PEIX882264627043173289018169081,1071,1911,6251,6321,5151,425
18. Resources Connection, Inc RGP4806938971,1681,8641,0901,2221,4341,3392,5214,951591599583654729703
19. REX American Resources Corporation REX464473465429417391396347224231170302410658667572436454453487418
20. Clean Energy Fuels Corp CLNE7892118129132212293334352429384403342346344
21. Blue Dolphin Energy Company BDCO352410388222168258341309
22. Cardinal Ethanol, LLC CRDE3583372412232292672610
23. Granite Falls Energy, LLC GFGY175224301231216216210209
24. Aemetis, Inc AMTX-141.46189178208147143150172202
25. New Fortress Energy Inc NFE2197112189
26. Vertex Energy, Inc VTNR395811013516225914798146181163
27. Gevo, Inc GEVO0.210.6616.465243.35283027283324
28. Mission NewEnergy Limited MNELF3512.2115.11280.15000.040.0100.17
29. MMEX Resources Corporation MMEX0000000
30. RENEWABLE FUEL CORP RWFC0.190
31. Plastic2Oil, Inc PTOI0.990.690.060.020.0200
32. Strattner Financial Group Corp SCNG1.9442270000
33. Heron Lake BioEnergy, LLC HLBYL1691641491161101101080
34. Green Energy Live, Inc GELV000.26
35. Blue Sugars Corporation KLEG7.824.0104.07
36. Strainsforpains, Inc EBYH00.010000000000000000
37. GreenShift Corporation GERS3.163.283.981313.213.9614.4430243.877.7415.0614.5115.512.769.47
38. RTS Oil Holdings, Inc RTSO1.060.370.16
39. Lignol Energy Corporation LECFF0000


Revenue Growth

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP growth per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC1.411.411.371.051.220.980.740.881.191.291.29
2. Valero Energy Corporation VLO1.021.021.81.411.421.511.121.041.250.581.211.531.110.990.950.670.861.241.250.93
3. Phillips 66 PSX1.371.370.990.960.940.610.851.211.090.96
4. World Fuel Services Corporation INT1.271.270.891.131.722.121.541.231.271.350.611.691.811.121.071.040.70.891.251.180.93
5. PBF Energy Inc PBF71.0171.011.350.951.040.661.211.371.250.9
6. Cosan Limited CZZ1.531.530.891.962.831.341.21.120.20.01480.031.011.081.241.22
7. Parkland Corporation PKIUF1.331.331.051.51.311.321.371.661.1311.521.341.071.281.220.970.991.531.511.28
8. HollyFrontier Corporation HFC1.181.180.781.581.61.431.251.191.220.821.721.861.310.980.670.81.351.240.99
9. Delek US Holdings, Inc DK2.372.371.581.281.130.581.411.921.2110.960.570.881.731.410.91
10. CVR Energy, Inc CVI0.980.981.690.631.31.231.71.051.010.60.881.251.190.89
11. Par Pacific Holdings, Inc PARR3.683.680.672.861.532.61.870.931.650.41.360.430.3935.133.510.660.91.311.41.58
12. Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P CLMT1.251.252.391.2711.520.741.191.431.491.161.070.730.851.110.870.99
13. Renewable Energy Group, Inc REGI1.651.653.811.231.480.851.091.471.061.11.11
14. Green Plains Inc GPREINFINF6.911.641.670.980.871.060.911.151.061.070.63
15. Adams Resources & Energy, Inc AE0.670.670.490.741.21.140.951.171.580.471.141.451.051.171.050.470.571.21.321.03
16. NuStar Energy L.P NS1.071.071.21.531.222.991.721.33.270.81.141.490.910.580.890.680.841.031.080.76
17. Pacific Ethanol, Inc PEIX2.582.582.041.530.451.042.740.911.111.221.081.3610.930.94
18. Resources Connection, Inc RGP1.441.441.291.31.60.581.121.170.931.881.960.121.010.971.121.110.96
19. REX American Resources Corporation REX1.021.020.980.920.970.941.010.880.641.030.741.771.361.61.010.860.761.0411.080.86
20. Clean Energy Fuels Corp CLNE1.171.171.291.11.021.611.381.141.061.220.91.050.851.010.99
21. Blue Dolphin Energy Company BDCO1.161.160.950.570.761.541.320.91
22. Cardinal Ethanol, LLC CRDE0.940.940.710.931.031.170.980
23. Granite Falls Energy, LLC GFGY1.281.281.340.770.9310.970.99
24. Aemetis, Inc AMTX-1.34-1.340.941.170.710.981.051.141.18
25. New Fortress Energy Inc NFE4.554.551.151.68
26. Vertex Energy, Inc VTNR1.51.51.891.231.21.60.570.671.481.240.9
27. Gevo, Inc GEVO3.173.1724.843.940.380.148.451.070.91.011.190.75
28. Mission NewEnergy Limited MNELF0.350.351.241.850.010NANINF0.190.2108.37
29. MMEX Resources Corporation MMEXNANNANNANNANNANNANNAN
30. RENEWABLE FUEL CORP RWFC00
31. Plastic2Oil, Inc PTOI0.70.70.080.291.310NAN
32. Strattner Financial Group Corp SCNG21.3721.370.650NANNANNAN
33. Heron Lake BioEnergy, LLC HLBYL0.970.970.910.770.9510.990
34. Green Energy Live, Inc GELVNANNANINF
35. Blue Sugars Corporation KLEG0.510.510INF
36. Strainsforpains, Inc EBYHINFINF0NANNANINF0NANNANNANNANNANNANNANNANNANNANNAN
37. GreenShift Corporation GERS1.041.041.213.271.011.061.032.080.790.1621.950.961.070.820.74
38. RTS Oil Holdings, Inc RTSO0.350.350.43
39. Lignol Energy Corporation LECFFNANNANNANNAN