Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

I always look at economics of the business
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush and the question is how sure are you there are 2 in the bush and how long you have to wait to get them out
1. How many birds are in the bush?
2. When you gonna get them out?
3. How sure are you?
If interest rates are 15% roughly you've got 2 birds out of bush in 5 years equal to bird in the hand but if interest rates are 3% and you can get 2 birds out in 20 years it still makes sense to give up the bird in the hand because it's all gets back to discounting an interest rate. Often you don't know not only how many birds in the bush but in the case of internet companies there were not any birds in the bush but they still take the bird that you give them from the hand
Loop through all the subindustries and try to understand how many birds are in the bush from the perspective of economics of the business

Revenue	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Display GDP grow per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC										40,606	57,279	78,638	82,446	100,202	97,991	72,146	63,186	75,049	96,900	124,650
2. Valero Energy Corporation VLO	14,671	14,988	26,976	37,969	53,919	81,362	91,051	94,526	118,298	68,144	82,233	125,987	139,250	138,074	130,844	87,804	75,659	93,980	117,033	108,324
3. Phillips 66 PSX											132,872	182,133	179,460	171,596	161,212	98,975	84,279	102,354	111,461	107,293
4. World Fuel Services Corporation INT	1,529	1,365	1,547	2,662	5,654	8,734	10,785	13,730	18,509	11,295	19,131	34,623	38,945	41,562	43,386	30,380	27,016	33,696	39,750	36,819
5. PBF Energy Inc PBF											211	14,960	20,139	19,151	19,828	13,124	15,920	21,787	27,186	24,508
6. Cosan Limited CZZ						1,097	1,679	1,491	2,926	8,283	11,091	13,255	14,852	2,914	26	12,356	12,518	13,579	16,835	20,611
7. Parkland Corporation PKIUF	277	292		437	571	751	1,029	1,703	1,930	1,920	2,922	3,904	4,166	5,331	6,478	6,300	6,266	9,561	14,442	18,453
8. HollyFrontier Corporation HFC	966	1,142	889	1,403	2,246	3,213	4,023	4,792	5,868	4,834	8,323	15,440	20,091	20,161	19,764	13,238	10,536	14,251	17,715	17,487
9. Delek US Holdings, Inc DK					858	2,032	3,208	4,097	4,615	2,667	3,756	7,198	8,727	8,707	8,324	4,782	4,198	7,267	10,233	9,298
10. CVR Energy, Inc CVI							3,038	2,967	5,016	3,136	4,080	5,029	8,567	8,986	9,110	5,433	4,782	5,988	7,124	6,364
11. Par Pacific Holdings, Inc PARR	12.36	8.3	24	36	95		177	164	271	109	148	64	25	886	3,108	2,066	1,865	2,443	3,411	5,402
12. Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P CLMT				430	540	1,289	1,641	1,638	2,489	1,847	2,191	3,135	4,657	5,421	5,791	4,213	3,599	4,000	3,498	3,447
13. Renewable Energy Group, Inc REGI										132	216	824	1,015	1,498	1,274	1,387	2,041	2,158	2,383	2,641
14. Green Plains Inc GPRE								0	189	1,304	2,133	3,554	3,477	3,041	3,236	2,957	3,403	3,590	3,843	2,417
15. Adams Resources & Energy, Inc AE	7,022	4,717	2,323	1,722	2,070	2,365	2,247	2,636	4,160	1,943	2,212	3,214	3,381	3,946	4,133	1,944	1,100	1,322	1,750	1,811
16. NuStar Energy L.P NS	92	99	118	181	221	660	1,136	1,475	4,829	3,856	4,403	6,575	5,956	3,464	3,075	2,084	1,757	1,814	1,962	1,498
17. Pacific Ethanol, Inc PEIX						88	226	462	704	317	328	901	816	908	1,107	1,191	1,625	1,632	1,515	1,425
18. Resources Connection, Inc RGP					480	693	897	1,168	1,864	1,090	1,222	1,434	1,339	2,521	4,951	591599	583	654	729	703
19. REX American Resources Corporation REX	464	473	465	429	417	391	396	347	224	231	170	302	410	658	667	572	436	454	453	487	418
20. Clean Energy Fuels Corp CLNE						78	92	118	129	132	212	293	334	352	429	384	403	342	346	344
21. Blue Dolphin Energy Company BDCO													352	410	388	222	168	258	341	309
22. Cardinal Ethanol, LLC CRDE														358	337	241	223	229	267	261	0
23. Granite Falls Energy, LLC GFGY													175	224	301	231	216	216	210	209
24. Aemetis, Inc AMTX												-141.46	189	178	208	147	143	150	172	202
25. New Fortress Energy Inc NFE																	21	97	112	189
26. Vertex Energy, Inc VTNR										39	58	110	135	162	259	147	98	146	181	163
27. Gevo, Inc GEVO									0.21	0.66	16.4	65	24	3.35	28	30	27	28	33	24
28. Mission NewEnergy Limited MNELF										35	12.21	15.11	28	0.15	0	0	0.04	0.01	0	0.17
29. MMEX Resources Corporation MMEX															0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30. RENEWABLE FUEL CORP RWFC													0.19	0
31. Plastic2Oil, Inc PTOI													0.99	0.69	0.06	0.02	0.02	0	0
32. Strattner Financial Group Corp SCNG						1.94	42	27	0	0					0	0
33. Heron Lake BioEnergy, LLC HLBYL													169	164	149	116	110	110	108	0
34. Green Energy Live, Inc GELV								0	0	0.26
35. Blue Sugars Corporation KLEG								7.82	4.01	0	4.07
36. Strainsforpains, Inc EBYH	0	0.01	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
37. GreenShift Corporation GERS	3.16	3.28	3.98	13	13.2	13.96	14.44	30	24	3.87	7.74	15.06	14.51	15.5	12.76	9.47
38. RTS Oil Holdings, Inc RTSO												1.06	0.37	0.16
39. Lignol Energy Corporation LECFF											0	0	0	0

Revenue Growth	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Display GDP growth per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC	1.41	1.41	1.37	1.05	1.22	0.98	0.74	0.88	1.19	1.29	1.29
2. Valero Energy Corporation VLO	1.02	1.02	1.8	1.41	1.42	1.51	1.12	1.04	1.25	0.58	1.21	1.53	1.11	0.99	0.95	0.67	0.86	1.24	1.25	0.93
3. Phillips 66 PSX	1.37	1.37	0.99	0.96	0.94	0.61	0.85	1.21	1.09	0.96
4. World Fuel Services Corporation INT	1.27	1.27	0.89	1.13	1.72	2.12	1.54	1.23	1.27	1.35	0.61	1.69	1.81	1.12	1.07	1.04	0.7	0.89	1.25	1.18	0.93
5. PBF Energy Inc PBF	71.01	71.01	1.35	0.95	1.04	0.66	1.21	1.37	1.25	0.9
6. Cosan Limited CZZ	1.53	1.53	0.89	1.96	2.83	1.34	1.2	1.12	0.2	0.01	480.03	1.01	1.08	1.24	1.22
7. Parkland Corporation PKIUF	1.33	1.33	1.05	1.5	1.31	1.32	1.37	1.66	1.13	1	1.52	1.34	1.07	1.28	1.22	0.97	0.99	1.53	1.51	1.28
8. HollyFrontier Corporation HFC	1.18	1.18	0.78	1.58	1.6	1.43	1.25	1.19	1.22	0.82	1.72	1.86	1.3	1	0.98	0.67	0.8	1.35	1.24	0.99
9. Delek US Holdings, Inc DK	2.37	2.37	1.58	1.28	1.13	0.58	1.41	1.92	1.21	1	0.96	0.57	0.88	1.73	1.41	0.91
10. CVR Energy, Inc CVI	0.98	0.98	1.69	0.63	1.3	1.23	1.7	1.05	1.01	0.6	0.88	1.25	1.19	0.89
11. Par Pacific Holdings, Inc PARR	3.68	3.68	0.67	2.86	1.53	2.6	1.87	0.93	1.65	0.4	1.36	0.43	0.39	35.13	3.51	0.66	0.9	1.31	1.4	1.58
12. Calumet Specialty Products Partners, L.P CLMT	1.25	1.25	2.39	1.27	1	1.52	0.74	1.19	1.43	1.49	1.16	1.07	0.73	0.85	1.11	0.87	0.99
13. Renewable Energy Group, Inc REGI	1.65	1.65	3.81	1.23	1.48	0.85	1.09	1.47	1.06	1.1	1.11
14. Green Plains Inc GPRE	INF	INF	6.91	1.64	1.67	0.98	0.87	1.06	0.91	1.15	1.06	1.07	0.63
15. Adams Resources & Energy, Inc AE	0.67	0.67	0.49	0.74	1.2	1.14	0.95	1.17	1.58	0.47	1.14	1.45	1.05	1.17	1.05	0.47	0.57	1.2	1.32	1.03
16. NuStar Energy L.P NS	1.07	1.07	1.2	1.53	1.22	2.99	1.72	1.3	3.27	0.8	1.14	1.49	0.91	0.58	0.89	0.68	0.84	1.03	1.08	0.76
17. Pacific Ethanol, Inc PEIX	2.58	2.58	2.04	1.53	0.45	1.04	2.74	0.91	1.11	1.22	1.08	1.36	1	0.93	0.94
18. Resources Connection, Inc RGP	1.44	1.44	1.29	1.3	1.6	0.58	1.12	1.17	0.93	1.88	1.96	0.12	1.01	0.97	1.12	1.11	0.96
19. REX American Resources Corporation REX	1.02	1.02	0.98	0.92	0.97	0.94	1.01	0.88	0.64	1.03	0.74	1.77	1.36	1.6	1.01	0.86	0.76	1.04	1	1.08	0.86
20. Clean Energy Fuels Corp CLNE	1.17	1.17	1.29	1.1	1.02	1.61	1.38	1.14	1.06	1.22	0.9	1.05	0.85	1.01	0.99
21. Blue Dolphin Energy Company BDCO	1.16	1.16	0.95	0.57	0.76	1.54	1.32	0.91
22. Cardinal Ethanol, LLC CRDE	0.94	0.94	0.71	0.93	1.03	1.17	0.98	0
23. Granite Falls Energy, LLC GFGY	1.28	1.28	1.34	0.77	0.93	1	0.97	0.99
24. Aemetis, Inc AMTX	-1.34	-1.34	0.94	1.17	0.71	0.98	1.05	1.14	1.18
25. New Fortress Energy Inc NFE	4.55	4.55	1.15	1.68
26. Vertex Energy, Inc VTNR	1.5	1.5	1.89	1.23	1.2	1.6	0.57	0.67	1.48	1.24	0.9
27. Gevo, Inc GEVO	3.17	3.17	24.84	3.94	0.38	0.14	8.45	1.07	0.9	1.01	1.19	0.75
28. Mission NewEnergy Limited MNELF	0.35	0.35	1.24	1.85	0.01	0	NAN	INF	0.19	0.2	108.37
29. MMEX Resources Corporation MMEX	NAN	NAN	NAN	NAN	NAN	NAN	NAN
30. RENEWABLE FUEL CORP RWFC	0	0
31. Plastic2Oil, Inc PTOI	0.7	0.7	0.08	0.29	1.31	0	NAN
32. Strattner Financial Group Corp SCNG	21.37	21.37	0.65	0	NAN	NAN	NAN
33. Heron Lake BioEnergy, LLC HLBYL	0.97	0.97	0.91	0.77	0.95	1	0.99	0
34. Green Energy Live, Inc GELV	NAN	NAN	INF
35. Blue Sugars Corporation KLEG	0.51	0.51	0	INF
36. Strainsforpains, Inc EBYH	INF	INF	0	NAN	NAN	INF	0	NAN	NAN	NAN	NAN	NAN	NAN	NAN	NAN	NAN	NAN	NAN
37. GreenShift Corporation GERS	1.04	1.04	1.21	3.27	1.01	1.06	1.03	2.08	0.79	0.16	2	1.95	0.96	1.07	0.82	0.74
38. RTS Oil Holdings, Inc RTSO	0.35	0.35	0.43
39. Lignol Energy Corporation LECFF	NAN	NAN	NAN	NAN

Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Revenue

Revenue Growth