Oil & Gas Drilling


I always look at economics of the business
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush and the question is how sure are you there are 2 in the bush and how long you have to wait to get them out
1. How many birds are in the bush?
2. When you gonna get them out?
3. How sure are you?
If interest rates are 15% roughly you've got 2 birds out of bush in 5 years equal to bird in the hand but if interest rates are 3% and you can get 2 birds out in 20 years it still makes sense to give up the bird in the hand because it's all gets back to discounting an interest rate. Often you don't know not only how many birds in the bush but in the case of internet companies there were not any birds in the bush but they still take the bird that you give them from the hand
Loop through all the subindustries and try to understand how many birds are in the bush from the perspective of economics of the business

Revenue

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP grow per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. Transocean Ltd RIG1,2302,8202,6742,4342,4162,7573,7456,03611,44611,5479,8339,1469,2329,4919,1487,3584,1651,3703,0183,076
2. Nabors Industries Ltd NBR1,3272,1211,4661,8802,3943,4604,8204,9395,5123,6924,1756,0606,9906,1526,8043,8642,2282,5643,0583,043
3. Helmerich & Payne, Inc HP5998154825075938011,2251,6302,0371,8941,8752,5443,1523,3883,7203,1651,6241,8052,4872,7981,774
4. Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc PTEN3089905287761,0011,7402,5472,1142,2097821,4632,5662,7232,7163,1821,8919162,3573,3272,471
5. NexTier Oilfield Solutions Inc NEX3664211,5422,1371,822
6. Ensign Energy Services Inc ESVIF4504824147168811,3041,5501,5831,4021,0811,3601,8542,2151,9751,9981,3918601,0011,1561,592
7. Precision Drilling Corporation PDS9091,2271,0741,4791,9331,0881,2331,0139061,1381,4341,9132,0571,9112,0231,5561,0031,3211,5411,541
8. Seadrill Limited SDRL2,1063,2544,0414,1924,4785,2824,9974,1063,1692,0881,1771,388
9. Vantage Drilling Company VTGDF00.91111278381431681822213226761
10. Pacific Drilling S.A PACD00656387461,0861,085769320265230
11. Independence Contract Drilling, Inc ICD15.124370887090143204
12. Western Energy Services Corp WEEEF257311358437228124238236196
13. AKITA Drilling Ltd AKTAF597065961131391501431131011111962421581421126171118176
14. PHX Energy Services Corp PHXHF3660851161351091982553043584492071101922330
15. Cathedral Energy Services Ltd CETEF12.7614.7314.0425397411914614790142216205212237986011700


Revenue Growth

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP growth per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. Transocean Ltd RIG2.292.290.950.910.991.141.361.611.91.010.850.931.011.030.960.80.570.332.21.02
2. Nabors Industries Ltd NBR1.61.60.691.281.271.451.391.021.120.671.131.451.150.881.110.570.581.151.191
3. Helmerich & Payne, Inc HP1.361.360.591.051.171.351.531.331.250.930.991.361.241.071.10.850.511.111.381.130.63
4. Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc PTEN3.223.220.531.471.291.741.460.831.040.351.871.751.0611.170.590.482.571.410.74
5. NexTier Oilfield Solutions Inc NEX1.151.153.671.390.85
6. Ensign Energy Services Inc ESVIF1.071.070.861.731.231.481.191.020.890.771.261.361.190.891.010.70.621.161.161.38
7. Precision Drilling Corporation PDS1.351.350.881.381.310.561.130.820.891.261.261.331.070.931.060.770.641.321.171
8. Seadrill Limited SDRL1.551.551.241.041.071.180.950.820.770.660.561.18
9. Vantage Drilling Company VTGDFINFINF122.122.51.371.131.581.210.261.063.37
10. Pacific Drilling S.A PACDNANNANINF9.751.171.4610.710.420.830.87
11. Independence Contract Drilling, Inc ICD2.832.831.641.260.791.281.581.43
12. Western Energy Services Corp WEEEF1.211.211.151.220.520.551.910.990.83
13. AKITA Drilling Ltd AKTAF1.171.170.941.461.181.231.080.960.790.91.11.761.230.650.90.790.541.171.661.49
14. PHX Energy Services Corp PHXHF1.631.631.431.361.170.811.811.291.191.181.250.460.531.741.210
15. Cathedral Energy Services Ltd CETEF1.151.150.951.81.531.911.611.231.010.611.581.520.951.031.120.410.611.950NAN