Managed Health Care


I always look at economics of the business
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush and the question is how sure are you there are 2 in the bush and how long you have to wait to get them out
1. How many birds are in the bush?
2. When you gonna get them out?
3. How sure are you?
If interest rates are 15% roughly you've got 2 birds out of bush in 5 years equal to bird in the hand but if interest rates are 3% and you can get 2 birds out in 20 years it still makes sense to give up the bird in the hand because it's all gets back to discounting an interest rate. Often you don't know not only how many birds in the bush but in the case of internet companies there were not any birds in the bush but they still take the bird that you give them from the hand
Loop through all the subindustries and try to understand how many birds are in the bush from the perspective of economics of the business

Revenue

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP grow per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated UNH21,12223,45425,02028,82337,21845,36571,54275,43181,18687,13894,155101,862110,618122,489130,474157,107184,840201,159226,247242,155
2. Anthem, Inc ANTM8,77610,42413,28716,78020,82345,15956,98261,17161,28061,26958,80260,74061,71271,02473,87479,15784,86390,03992,105104,213
3. Centene Corporation CNC2233304717751,0071,5172,2972,9443,3864,1194,4485,0778,66810,86316,56022,76040,60748,38260,11674,639
4. Humana Inc HUM10,51410,19511,28112,21113,10414,41821,41725,29028,94630,96033,86835,10639,12641,31348,50054,28954,37953,76756,91264,888
5. Molina Healthcare, Inc MOH5046447941,1751,6502,0052,4923,1123,6694,0864,7706,0296,5899,66714,17817,78219,88318,87516,829
6. Magellan Health, Inc MGLN1,8741,7561,7531,5111,7951,8081,6842,1562,6252,6422,9692,7993,2073,5463,7604,5974,8375,8397,3147,159
7. Triple-S Management Corporation GTS1,4301,5791,5501,7331,9891,9992,1532,4222,3822,3202,9032,9852,9162,9963,376
8. HealthEquity, Inc HQY466288127178230287532
9. Pacific Health Care Organization, Inc PFHO4.836.579.468.215.696.516.87.33
10. Advanzeon Solutions, Inc CHCR17.7218.97283228242415.63373514.183571693.130.540.440.210.560.520.3
11. Healthcare Corporation of America HCCA23274958


Revenue Growth

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP growth per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated UNH1.111.111.071.151.291.221.581.051.081.071.081.081.091.111.071.21.181.091.121.07
2. Anthem, Inc ANTM1.191.191.271.261.242.171.261.07110.961.031.021.151.041.071.071.061.021.13
3. Centene Corporation CNC1.481.481.431.641.31.511.511.281.151.221.081.141.711.251.521.371.781.191.241.24
4. Humana Inc HUM0.970.971.111.081.071.11.491.181.141.071.091.041.111.061.171.1210.991.061.14
5. Molina Healthcare, Inc MOH1.281.281.231.481.41.221.241.251.181.111.171.261.091.471.471.251.120.950.89
6. Magellan Health, Inc MGLN0.940.9410.861.191.010.931.281.221.011.120.941.151.111.061.221.051.211.250.98
7. Triple-S Management Corporation GTS1.11.10.981.121.1511.081.120.980.971.251.030.981.031.13
8. HealthEquity, Inc HQY1.351.351.421.441.411.291.251.85
9. Pacific Health Care Organization, Inc PFHO1.361.361.440.870.691.141.041.08
10. Advanzeon Solutions, Inc CHCR1.071.071.461.170.850.890.980.652.390.940.42.482.020.970.050.170.820.482.690.930.57
11. Healthcare Corporation of America HCCA1.191.191.781.19