Investment Banking & Brokerage


I always look at economics of the business
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush and the question is how sure are you there are 2 in the bush and how long you have to wait to get them out
1. How many birds are in the bush?
2. When you gonna get them out?
3. How sure are you?
If interest rates are 15% roughly you've got 2 birds out of bush in 5 years equal to bird in the hand but if interest rates are 3% and you can get 2 birds out in 20 years it still makes sense to give up the bird in the hand because it's all gets back to discounting an interest rate. Often you don't know not only how many birds in the bush but in the case of internet companies there were not any birds in the bush but they still take the bird that you give them from the hand
Loop through all the subindustries and try to understand how many birds are in the bush from the perspective of economics of the business

Revenue

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP grow per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. Nomura Holdings, Inc NMR11,07911,70413,7567,12210,55410,50415,26117,43015,9616,70214,52616,74121,92421,55717,7880.0133,0791,723,09634,8561,715,51639,1221,972,1581,835,1181,952,482
2. Morgan Stanley MS45,41343,72732,41534,65439,22151,77076,32384,92157,81029,26031,62240,92726,11232,41734,27527,85823,88132,06228,81925,56730,93329,43827,96334,64536,30136,725
3. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc GS33,00031,13822,85423,62329,83943,39169,35387,96853,57951,67345,96736,79341,17030,81430,48130,75628,02129,14132,84932,184
4. The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW7,1395,2814,4804,3284,4795,1514,9635,6175,3934,1934,2484,6914,8835,4356,0586,3807,4788,61810,13210,721
5. Raymond James Financial, Inc RJF1,6991,6581,5161,4981,8302,1572,6073,1053,2052,6032,9803,4103,8984,5964,9605,3065,5206,5297,4768,0238,168
6. LPL Financial Holdings Inc LPLA2,7183,1172,7503,1133,4793,6614,1414,3744,2754,0491,4485,1885,625
7. XP Inc XP4201676901,2842,0553,596
8. Stifel Financial Corp SF1981901942222512704667898821,1031,3821,4421,6131,9732,2082,3772,6422,9963,1953,515
9. Lazard Ltd LAZ1,2341,3281,3801,5842,0551,6771,6382,0031,9201,9942,0652,3632,4052,3842,6982,8852,667
10. Interactive Brokers Group, Inc IBKR1,0991,7372,0232,1821,1709881,4451,1921,1281,1161,2561,4751,9272,3662,580
11. BGC Partners, Inc BGCP831171241541631441491591,2291,1621,3311,4651,7672,4981,7872,5752,6133,3531,9382,104
12. Evercore Inc EVR861262173402253374015446587799371,2401,4571,7242,0822,029
13. Virtu Financial, Inc VIRT6657237967021,0281,8791,530
14. Canaccord Genuity Group Inc CCORF1363073584996547133795698286107847749317788801,0231,1911,224
15. Houlihan Lokey, Inc HLI5926816948729631,0841,159
16. Cowen Inc COWN152951462882552403274284654726599671,049
17. Oppenheimer Holdings Inc OPY3172612836686516807839129209911,0359599531,0201,0049288589209581,033
18. Futu Holdings Limited FUTU3.82465255636872
19. Moelis & Company MC386414519552613685886747
20. PJT Partners Inc PJT393399406499499580718
21. B. Riley Financial, Inc RILY00834264847677113190322423652
22. Greenhill & Co., Inc GHL113127152221291400222277278294285287275262336239352301
23. Freedom Holding Corp FRHC000005378120
24. China Finance Online Co. Limited JRJC6.027.487.13265654605330538410783434536
25. Siebert Financial Corp SIEB4432242528313332302521202116.415.8210.19.8113.113029
26. National Holdings Corporation NHLD61504250624659738211711112711912818416317419021124
27. RF Capital Group Inc GMPXF626310115021930646224032844229726920722621218615014912.86
28. GreenBank Capital Inc GRNBF00.05000.060.01
29. Global Capital Partners Inc GCPL4418.69
30. The Ziegler Companies, Inc ZGCO847867747994107114828675689275
31. Vie Financial Group, Inc VIFI3.871.351.862.747.07
32. Network 1 Financial Group, Inc NTFL02.6303.212.912.05
33. Brandt, Inc BNDT2415.741.98
34. Entheos Capital Corp WFGCF00.170.241.131.931.833.124.674.820.520.750.440.340.210.230.170000
35. Merriman Holdings, Inc MERR0.092.26.5118.35384452883749312112.559.4915.5
36. Westech Capital Corp WTECQ14.71252127493118.5917.412022
37. Axia International Group, Inc AIGI3.61.59000.870.8300.260.27


Revenue Growth

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP growth per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. Nomura Holdings, Inc NMR1.061.061.180.521.4811.451.140.920.422.171.151.310.980.8303563756.3252.090.0249.220.0250.410.931.06
2. Morgan Stanley MS0.960.960.741.071.131.321.471.110.680.511.081.290.641.241.060.810.861.340.90.891.210.950.951.241.051.01
3. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc GS0.940.940.731.031.261.451.61.270.610.960.890.81.120.750.991.010.911.041.130.98
4. The Charles Schwab Corporation SCHW0.740.740.850.971.031.150.961.130.960.781.011.11.041.111.111.051.171.151.181.06
5. Raymond James Financial, Inc RJF0.980.980.910.991.221.181.211.191.030.811.141.141.141.181.081.071.041.181.141.071.02
6. LPL Financial Holdings Inc LPLA1.151.150.881.131.121.051.131.060.980.950.363.581.08
7. XP Inc XP0.40.44.131.861.61.75
8. Stifel Financial Corp SF0.960.961.021.141.131.071.731.691.121.251.251.041.121.221.121.081.111.131.071.1
9. Lazard Ltd LAZ1.081.081.041.151.30.820.981.220.961.041.041.141.020.991.131.070.92
10. Interactive Brokers Group, Inc IBKR1.581.581.161.080.540.841.460.830.950.991.131.171.311.231.09
11. BGC Partners, Inc BGCP1.411.411.061.251.060.881.031.077.720.951.151.11.211.410.721.441.011.280.581.09
12. Evercore Inc EVR1.461.461.721.570.661.51.191.361.211.191.21.321.171.181.210.97
13. Virtu Financial, Inc VIRT1.091.091.10.881.461.830.81
14. Canaccord Genuity Group Inc CCORF2.262.261.171.41.311.090.531.51.460.741.280.991.20.841.131.161.161.03
15. Houlihan Lokey, Inc HLI1.151.151.021.261.11.131.07
16. Cowen Inc COWN0.630.631.531.970.880.941.361.311.091.021.41.471.09
17. Oppenheimer Holdings Inc OPY0.830.831.082.360.971.041.151.161.011.081.040.930.991.070.990.920.921.071.041.08
18. Futu Holdings Limited FUTU1.051.0516.193.932.491.37
19. Moelis & Company MC1.071.071.251.061.111.121.290.84
20. PJT Partners Inc PJT1.011.011.021.2311.161.24
21. B. Riley Financial, Inc RILYNANNANINF0.511.511.320.911.011.461.691.691.311.54
22. Greenhill & Co., Inc GHL1.121.121.21.461.311.380.551.251.011.060.971.010.960.951.280.711.470.86
23. Freedom Holding Corp FRHCNANNANNANNANNANINF1.491.53
24. China Finance Online Co. Limited JRJC1.241.240.953.632.170.951.110.890.561.781.591.280.770.511.070.78
25. Siebert Financial Corp SIEB0.720.720.751.021.141.111.050.980.930.850.820.971.040.780.960.640.971.342.290.95
26. National Holdings Corporation NHLD0.830.830.841.191.250.731.281.241.131.420.951.140.941.081.440.881.071.091.110.11
27. RF Capital Group Inc GMPXF1.021.021.61.481.461.41.510.521.371.350.670.910.771.090.940.880.810.990.09
28. GreenBank Capital Inc GRNBFINFINF0NANINF0.22
29. Global Capital Partners Inc GCPL1.831.832.810.43
30. The Ziegler Companies, Inc ZGCO0.940.940.851.111.071.191.141.070.711.060.870.91.370.81
31. Vie Financial Group, Inc VIFI0.350.351.381.472.59
32. Network 1 Financial Group, Inc NTFLINFINF0INF0.910.7
33. Brandt, Inc BNDT0.790.790.660.13
34. Entheos Capital Corp WFGCFINFINF1.44.611.720.941.711.51.030.111.430.590.760.631.110.720NANNANNAN
35. Merriman Holdings, Inc MERR24.1224.122.972.822.11.151.181.680.421.330.620.70.580.761.63
36. Westech Capital Corp WTECQ1.721.720.841.251.830.630.60.941.161.11
37. Axia International Group, Inc AIGI0.440.440NANINF0.960INF1.01