Insurance Brokers


I always look at economics of the business
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush and the question is how sure are you there are 2 in the bush and how long you have to wait to get them out
1. How many birds are in the bush?
2. When you gonna get them out?
3. How sure are you?
If interest rates are 15% roughly you've got 2 birds out of bush in 5 years equal to bird in the hand but if interest rates are 3% and you can get 2 birds out in 20 years it still makes sense to give up the bird in the hand because it's all gets back to discounting an interest rate. Often you don't know not only how many birds in the bush but in the case of internet companies there were not any birds in the bush but they still take the bird that you give them from the hand
Loop through all the subindustries and try to understand how many birds are in the bush from the perspective of economics of the business

Revenue

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP grow per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc MMC10,1579,94310,44011,58812,12111,65211,92111,35011,58710,49310,55011,52611,92412,26112,95112,89313,21114,02414,95016,652
2. Aon Plc AON7,3837,6838,8289,81710,1789,8378,9607,4437,6237,5958,51211,28711,51411,81512,04511,68211,6279,99810,77011,013
3. Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company WLTW1,3051,4241,7352,0762,2752,2672,4282,5782,8343,2633,3393,4473,4803,6553,8023,8297,8878,2028,5139,039
4. Arthur J. Gallagher & Co AJG7419041,1211,2901,4801,4831,5481,6291,6591,7291,8642,1352,5203,1804,6275,3925,5956,1606,9347,195
5. Fanhua Inc FANH17.8132611241692252412552903472,4594,7014,0883,4713,706
6. Brown & Brown, Inc BRO2103654565516477868789609789689731,0141,2001,3631,5761,6611,7671,8812,0142,392
7. eHealth, Inc EHTH30426188111135160152155179180190187172251506
8. China United Insurance Service, Inc CUII3847475570737996
9. Goosehead Insurance, Inc GSHD31436077
10. NexgenRx Inc NEGXF4.434.623.634.665.715.677.170
11. UMC, Inc UMCN2.32.793.443.94.042.78


Revenue Growth

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP growth per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc MMC0.980.981.051.111.050.961.020.951.020.911.011.091.031.031.0611.021.061.071.11
2. Aon Plc AON1.041.041.151.111.040.970.910.831.0211.121.331.021.031.020.9710.861.081.02
3. Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company WLTW1.091.091.221.21.111.071.061.11.151.021.031.011.051.041.012.061.041.041.06
4. Arthur J. Gallagher & Co AJG1.221.221.241.151.1511.041.051.021.041.081.151.181.261.461.171.041.11.131.04
5. Fanhua Inc FANH1.771.771.942.011.371.331.071.061.141.197.11.910.870.851.07
6. Brown & Brown, Inc BRO1.741.741.251.211.171.211.121.091.020.991.011.041.181.141.161.051.061.061.071.19
7. eHealth, Inc EHTH1.381.381.471.431.271.211.190.951.031.1511.050.990.921.462.01
8. China United Insurance Service, Inc CUII1.251.2511.161.271.041.081.22
9. Goosehead Insurance, Inc GSHD1.361.361.411.29
10. NexgenRx Inc NEGXF1.041.040.781.291.220.991.260
11. UMC, Inc UMCN1.211.211.231.141.040.69