Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines


I always look at economics of the business
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush and the question is how sure are you there are 2 in the bush and how long you have to wait to get them out
1. How many birds are in the bush?
2. When you gonna get them out?
3. How sure are you?
If interest rates are 15% roughly you've got 2 birds out of bush in 5 years equal to bird in the hand but if interest rates are 3% and you can get 2 birds out in 20 years it still makes sense to give up the bird in the hand because it's all gets back to discounting an interest rate. Often you don't know not only how many birds in the bush but in the case of internet companies there were not any birds in the bush but they still take the bird that you give them from the hand
Loop through all the subindustries and try to understand how many birds are in the bush from the perspective of economics of the business

Revenue

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP grow per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. Marriott International, Inc MAR10,08010,1528,4419,01410,09911,55012,16012,99012,92810,90811,69112,31711,81412,78413,79614,48617,07222,89420,75820,972
2. Carnival Corporation & Plc CCL3,7794,5364,3686,7189,72711,08711,83913,03314,64613,15714,46915,79315,38215,45615,88415,71416,38917,51018,88120,825
3. Carnival Corporation & Plc CUK2,4242,4512,5272,8023,9014,3524,3755,2276,5505,9126,4737,1606,5256,8077,20815,71416,38917,51018,88120,825
4. Huazhu Group Limited HTHT1121852633575186898005,7756,5398,17010,06311,212
5. Royal Caribbean Group RCL2,8663,1453,4343,7844,5554,9035,2306,1496,5335,8906,7537,5377,6887,9608,0748,2998,4968,7789,49410,951
6. Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc HLT3,4513,0503,8473,8194,1464,4378,1108,7839,2769,73510,50218,72018,8899,1408,9069,452
7. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd NCLH2,0122,2192,2762,5703,1264,3454,8745,3966,0556,462
8. Hyatt Hotels Corporation H3,8373,3323,5273,6983,9494,1844,4154,3284,4294,6854,4545,020
9. InterContinental Hotels Group PLC IHG5,5825,9255,6766,2144,1633,2831,8801,7521,8541,5381,6281,7681,8351,9031,8581,8033,9124,0754,3374,627
10. Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation VAC1,5961,5841,6131,6481,7501,7361,8301,8111,9522,9684,355
11. Wyndham Destinations, Inc WYND3,5063,8744,3574,3213,7733,8514,2544,5345,0095,2815,5365,5995,0764,3874,129
12. Tuniu Corporation TOUR1793222.387,67110,5482,1922,2402,281
13. Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc WH1,3011,3121,2801,8682,053
14. Hilton Grand Vacations Inc HGV1,3171,4751,5831,7111,9991,838
15. Extended Stay America, Inc STAY9431,0111,1331,2131,2851,2711,9661,9421,218
16. Choice Hotels International, Inc CHH1673413663864294775456156425645966396927257588609251,0071,0411,110
17. GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd GHG6356487439061,092
18. Bluegreen Vacations Corporation BXG257272296262431610659685707615366366403458499618720723738740
19. Playa Hotels & Resorts N.V PLYA3674080560617636
20. Transat A.T. Inc TRZBF1,2631,3361,3391,5891,7982,0012,3203,2272,8973,2893,4443,6603,7163,4973,3302,2133715094184290
21. Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc LIND0198210242267310343
22. Target Hospitality Corp TH1491340321
23. Red Lion Hotels Corporation RLH126121194184163165170187188165163156151120145143164172136114
24. Santa Fe Financial Corporation SFEF11.658.3504.748.93003238333337434752875955576043
25. Temir Corp TMRR00.030.010
26. Candlewood Hotel Company, Inc CNDL133160268
27. Royal Olympic Cruise Lines, Inc ROCLF128129128
28. HWGG Entertainment Limited HWGG0.010.040.10.260.39
29. Mountain China Resorts (Holding) Limited MLCOF0.81.252.624.396.539.538.3310.8713.6114.7611.567.720
30. Axiom Holdings, Inc AIOM0.052.180.021.992.23
31. Square Chain Corp SQCC0.460.820.570.130
32. San Lotus Holding Inc SLOT0001.050


Revenue Growth

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP growth per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. Marriott International, Inc MAR1.011.010.831.071.121.141.051.0710.841.071.050.961.081.081.051.181.340.911.01
2. Carnival Corporation & Plc CCL1.21.20.961.541.451.141.071.11.120.91.11.090.9711.030.991.041.071.081.1
3. Carnival Corporation & Plc CUK1.011.011.031.111.391.121.011.191.250.91.091.110.911.041.062.181.041.071.081.1
4. Huazhu Group Limited HTHT1.651.651.431.361.451.331.167.221.131.251.231.11
5. Royal Caribbean Group RCL1.11.11.091.11.21.081.071.181.060.91.151.121.021.041.011.031.021.031.081.15
6. Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc HLT0.880.881.260.991.091.071.831.081.061.051.081.781.010.480.971.06
7. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd NCLH1.11.11.031.131.221.391.121.111.121.07
8. Hyatt Hotels Corporation H0.870.871.061.051.071.061.060.981.021.060.951.13
9. InterContinental Hotels Group PLC IHG1.061.060.961.090.670.790.570.931.060.831.061.091.041.040.980.972.171.041.061.07
10. Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation VAC0.990.991.021.021.060.991.050.991.081.521.47
11. Wyndham Destinations, Inc WYND1.11.11.120.990.871.021.11.071.11.051.051.010.910.860.94
12. Tuniu Corporation TOUR1.81.80.013218.441.380.211.021.02
13. Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc WH1.011.010.981.461.1
14. Hilton Grand Vacations Inc HGV1.121.121.071.081.170.92
15. Extended Stay America, Inc STAY1.071.071.121.071.060.991.550.990.63
16. Choice Hotels International, Inc CHH2.042.041.071.061.111.111.141.131.040.881.061.071.081.051.051.131.081.091.031.07
17. GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd GHG1.021.021.151.221.21
18. Bluegreen Vacations Corporation BXG1.061.061.090.891.651.411.081.041.030.870.611.11.131.091.241.1711.021
19. Playa Hotels & Resorts N.V PLYA1.111.110INF1.11.03
20. Transat A.T. Inc TRZBF1.061.0611.191.131.111.161.390.91.141.051.061.020.940.950.660.171.370.821.030
21. Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc LINDINFINF1.061.151.11.161.11
22. Target Hospitality Corp TH0.90.90INF
23. Red Lion Hotels Corporation RLH0.960.961.610.950.891.011.031.110.880.990.950.970.81.210.981.151.050.790.84
24. Santa Fe Financial Corporation SFEF0.720.720INF1.880NANINF1.190.8711.111.171.091.091.690.680.931.051.050.72
25. Temir Corp TMRRINFINF0.290
26. Candlewood Hotel Company, Inc CNDL1.011.011.21.67
27. Royal Olympic Cruise Lines, Inc ROCLF1.311.311.010.99
28. HWGG Entertainment Limited HWGG4.774.772.762.691.49
29. Mountain China Resorts (Holding) Limited MLCOF1.551.552.11.671.491.460.871.31.251.080.780.670
30. Axiom Holdings, Inc AIOM48.5148.510.0190.341.12
31. Square Chain Corp SQCC1.791.790.690.240
32. San Lotus Holding Inc SLOTNANNANNANINF0