Homefurnishing Retail


I always look at economics of the business
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush and the question is how sure are you there are 2 in the bush and how long you have to wait to get them out
1. How many birds are in the bush?
2. When you gonna get them out?
3. How sure are you?
If interest rates are 15% roughly you've got 2 birds out of bush in 5 years equal to bird in the hand but if interest rates are 3% and you can get 2 birds out in 20 years it still makes sense to give up the bird in the hand because it's all gets back to discounting an interest rate. Often you don't know not only how many birds in the bush but in the case of internet companies there were not any birds in the bush but they still take the bird that you give them from the hand
Loop through all the subindustries and try to understand how many birds are in the bush from the perspective of economics of the business

Revenue

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP grow per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. Bed Bath & Beyond Inc BBBY1,8782,3972,9283,6654,4785,1485,8106,6177,0497,2087,8298,7599,50010,91511,50411,88112,10412,21612,34912,02911,159
2. Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM1,3841,8292,0872,3612,7543,1373,5393,7283,9453,3613,1033,5043,7214,0434,3884,6994,9765,0845,2925,6725,898
3. Aaron's SpinCo, Inc AAN5035476417679411,1241,3191,4901,5931,7531,8772,0242,2232,2352,7253,1803,2083,3843,8293,948
4. RH RH2953693664004395265827137227739581,1931,5511,8672,1092,1352,4402,5062,647
5. Leon's Furniture Limited LEFUF2702672863524194705076406086687026706881,5951,6992,0322,1442,2122,2412,283
6. Sleep Number Corporation SNBR2702623364585586918067996095446067439359601,1571,2141,3111,4451,5321,698
7. At Home Group Inc HOME4986227669511,1661,365
8. Haverty Furniture Companies, Inc HVT694689713751789831862787693589621621670746769805822820818802
9. Sleep Country Canada Holdings Inc SCCAF341456524587623712
10. Kirkland's, Inc KIRK259307342369394415447397391406415430448461508562594634647604


Revenue Growth

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP growth per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. Bed Bath & Beyond Inc BBBY1.281.281.221.251.221.151.131.141.071.021.091.121.081.151.051.031.021.011.010.970.93
2. Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM1.321.321.141.131.171.141.131.051.060.850.921.131.061.091.091.071.061.021.041.071.04
3. Aaron's SpinCo, Inc AAN1.091.091.171.21.231.191.171.131.071.11.071.081.11.011.221.171.011.051.131.03
4. RH RH1.251.250.991.091.11.21.111.231.011.071.241.251.31.21.131.011.141.031.06
5. Leon's Furniture Limited LEFUF0.990.991.071.231.191.121.081.260.951.11.050.951.032.321.071.21.061.031.011.02
6. Sleep Number Corporation SNBR0.970.971.281.371.221.241.170.990.760.891.111.231.261.031.21.051.081.11.061.11
7. At Home Group Inc HOME1.251.251.231.241.231.17
8. Haverty Furniture Companies, Inc HVT0.990.991.031.051.051.051.040.910.880.851.0511.081.111.031.051.02110.98
9. Sleep Country Canada Holdings Inc SCCAF1.341.341.151.121.061.14
10. Kirkland's, Inc KIRK1.191.191.111.081.071.051.080.890.991.041.021.041.041.031.11.111.061.071.020.93