Homebuilding


I always look at economics of the business
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush and the question is how sure are you there are 2 in the bush and how long you have to wait to get them out
1. How many birds are in the bush?
2. When you gonna get them out?
3. How sure are you?
If interest rates are 15% roughly you've got 2 birds out of bush in 5 years equal to bird in the hand but if interest rates are 3% and you can get 2 birds out in 20 years it still makes sense to give up the bird in the hand because it's all gets back to discounting an interest rate. Often you don't know not only how many birds in the bush but in the case of internet companies there were not any birds in the bush but they still take the bird that you give them from the hand
Loop through all the subindustries and try to understand how many birds are in the bush from the perspective of economics of the business

Revenue

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP grow per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. Lennar Corporation LEN4,6946,0027,2778,90810,50513,86716,26710,1874,5753,1193,0743,0954,1055,3707,0958,63210,95012,64620,57222,260
2. D.R. Horton, Inc DHI3,6544,4566,7398,72810,84113,86415,10811,3356,6583,6684,3103,5504,2366,0868,02510,82412,15714,09116,06817,59320,311
3. PulteGroup, Inc PHM4,1585,3807,4719,04611,70914,69014,2709,2576,2634,0844,5694,1374,8205,6805,8225,9827,6688,57310,18810,213
4. NVR, Inc NVR2,3172,6243,1363,6874,3285,2756,1575,1563,7142,7563,0572,6693,1934,2214,3795,0695,7146,1847,1787,428
5. Meritage Homes Corporation MTH5207441,1201,4712,0403,0013,4612,3441,5239709428611,1941,8214,3495,1483,0423,2417,0427,329
6. Toll Brothers, Inc TOL1,8112,2232,3272,7743,8775,8356,1764,7623,2381,7971,4951,4761,8832,6743,9124,1715,1705,8157,1437,2247,078
7. Taylor Morrison Home Corporation TMHC1,3701,4362,3232,7082,9773,5503,8854,2274,762
8. KB Home KBH3,9314,5745,0315,8517,0539,44211,0046,4173,0341,8251,5901,3161,5602,0974,8023,0327,1784,3694,5474,553
9. M.D.C. Holdings, Inc MDC1,7502,1252,3182,9194,0084,8844,8022,9231,4588989598441,2031,6801,6511,8602,3252,595-3.753,293
10. TRI Pointe Group, Inc TPH2581,7042,4012,4052,8103,2633,083
11. TopBuild Corp BLD1,4121,5121,6171,7431,9062,3842,624
12. Century Communities, Inc CCS961713627349941,4242,1472,536
13. M/I Homes, Inc MHO9359771,0331,0701,1751,3481,3591,0176085706165667621,0371,2151,4181,6911,9622,2862,500
14. Beazer Homes USA, Inc BZH1,5281,8052,6413,1773,9074,9955,4623,4912,0741,0051,0107421,0061,2881,4641,6271,8221,9162,1072,0882,127
15. Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc HOV1,1381,7422,5513,2024,1605,3486,1484,7803,3081,5961,3721,1351,4851,8514,0844,2972,7524,8451,9912,0172,344
16. LGI Homes, Inc LGIH50763307671,2608381,2581,5041,838
17. Installed Building Products, Inc IBP4325186638631,1331,3361,512
18. Skyline Champion Corporation SKY1831781921872122371,0651,3601,370
19. Cavco Industries, Inc CVCO961101291571901691421051161724434525335677127748719631,062
20. Green Brick Partners, Inc GRBK653465206246291380454624792
21. The New Home Company Inc NWHM425583150430694751668669
22. Legacy Housing Corporation LEGH111129162169
23. BRP Group, Inc BRP6667908311,0011,2321,2318885834493763391,0081,3401,3561,4764880138
24. Nobility Homes, Inc NOBH30303839505760413011.8714.8613.4315.8418.5321283434383843434646
25. Comstock Holding Companies, Inc CHCI3556962242462664725242214.355486142455725
26. Sprout Tiny Homes, Inc STHI005.121202,3231.061.283.731.560.72
27. Vanjia Corporation VNJA00000.010.02
28. Deer Valley Corporation DVLY3.0601.370.240.0665636128292926293036
29. MedX Holdings, Inc MEDH00.080.7500000.722.18
30. Gold Rock Holdings, Inc GRHI00


Revenue Growth

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP growth per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. Lennar Corporation LEN1.281.281.211.221.181.321.170.630.450.680.991.011.331.311.321.221.271.151.631.08
2. D.R. Horton, Inc DHI1.221.221.511.31.241.281.090.750.590.551.170.821.191.441.321.351.121.161.141.091.15
3. PulteGroup, Inc PHM1.291.291.391.211.291.250.970.650.680.651.120.911.171.181.031.031.281.121.191
4. NVR, Inc NVR1.131.131.21.181.171.221.170.840.720.741.110.871.21.321.041.161.131.081.161.03
5. Meritage Homes Corporation MTH1.431.431.51.311.391.471.150.680.650.640.970.911.391.532.391.180.591.072.171.04
6. Toll Brothers, Inc TOL1.231.231.051.191.41.51.060.770.680.560.830.991.281.421.461.071.241.121.231.010.98
7. Taylor Morrison Home Corporation TMHC1.051.051.621.171.11.191.091.091.13
8. KB Home KBH1.161.161.11.161.211.341.170.580.470.60.870.831.191.342.290.632.370.611.041
9. M.D.C. Holdings, Inc MDC1.211.211.091.261.371.220.980.610.50.621.070.881.431.40.981.131.251.12-0-879.37
10. TRI Pointe Group, Inc TPH6.66.61.4111.171.160.94
11. TopBuild Corp BLD1.071.071.071.081.091.251.1
12. Century Communities, Inc CCS1.781.782.122.031.351.431.511.18
13. M/I Homes, Inc MHO1.041.041.061.041.11.151.010.750.60.941.080.921.351.361.171.171.191.161.171.09
14. Beazer Homes USA, Inc BZH1.181.181.461.21.231.281.090.640.590.4810.741.351.281.141.111.121.051.10.991.02
15. Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc HOV1.531.531.461.261.31.291.150.780.690.480.860.831.311.252.211.050.641.760.411.011.16
16. LGI Homes, Inc LGIH1.511.514.332.321.640.671.51.21.22
17. Installed Building Products, Inc IBP1.21.21.281.31.311.181.13
18. Skyline Champion Corporation SKY0.970.971.080.981.131.124.51.281.01
19. Cavco Industries, Inc CVCO1.151.151.171.221.20.890.840.741.11.492.581.021.181.061.261.091.131.111.1
20. Green Brick Partners, Inc GRBK0.710.710.441.21.181.311.191.371.27
21. The New Home Company Inc NWHM1.311.311.51.82.871.611.080.891
22. Legacy Housing Corporation LEGH1.161.161.261.04
23. BRP Group, Inc BRP1.191.191.051.21.2310.720.660.770.840.92.971.331.011.090.031.661.73
24. Nobility Homes, Inc NOBH1.021.021.251.031.281.131.060.680.740.391.250.91.181.171.141.321.2211.111.1411.081
25. Comstock Holding Companies, Inc CHCI1.61.61.732.341.11.080.180.540.950.930.643.820.881.280.681.091.250.45
26. Sprout Tiny Homes, Inc STHINANNANINF4.040.99114.0201.22.910.420.46
27. Vanjia Corporation VNJANANNANNANNANINF3.24
28. Deer Valley Corporation DVLY1.841.840INF0.180.251109.510.970.970.451.0610.91.11.051.18
29. MedX Holdings, Inc MEDHINFINF8.990NANNANNANINF3
30. Gold Rock Holdings, Inc GRHINANNANNANNAN