Forest Products


I always look at economics of the business
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush and the question is how sure are you there are 2 in the bush and how long you have to wait to get them out
1. How many birds are in the bush?
2. When you gonna get them out?
3. How sure are you?
If interest rates are 15% roughly you've got 2 birds out of bush in 5 years equal to bird in the hand but if interest rates are 3% and you can get 2 birds out in 20 years it still makes sense to give up the bird in the hand because it's all gets back to discounting an interest rate. Often you don't know not only how many birds in the bush but in the case of internet companies there were not any birds in the bush but they still take the bird that you give them from the hand
Loop through all the subindustries and try to understand how many birds are in the bush from the perspective of economics of the business

Revenue

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP grow per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) SVCBY7,1337,89810,24612,03313,69512,14414,84316,40314,02215,49816,15211,83313,12513,85413,29813,650117,31416,66418,75519,591
2. West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd WFTBF1,5489811,0381,1631,9953,0682,8533,3272,6202,4832,8952,7093,0243,2703,3182,9624,4505,1346,1184,877
3. Canfor Corporation CFPZF1,5191,2471,3431,6163,6093,2493,2963,2862,1462,0162,4382,3752,7353,0082,8813,9254,2354,6595,0444,658
4. Boise Cascade Company BCC2,2412,2482,7793,2743,5743,6333,9114,4324,9954,643
5. Louisiana-Pacific Corporation LPX2,9332,3601,9432,3002,8492,5992,2351,7051,3761,0551,3841,3571,7162,0851,9351,8932,2332,7342,8282,310
6. Stella-Jones Inc STLJF61711071351922713163915636287239131,0751,5591,8381,8862,1242,169
7. Interfor Corporation IFSPF5004484994656937167076133593716287438561,0401,2451,6871,7931,9902,1871,876
8. Norbord Inc OSB1,4301,2981,4811,9391,4861,4621,2521,1049437188929651,1491,3431,1981,5091,7662,1772,4241,731
9. Western Forest Products Inc WFSTF6404844044545465727698936705526708379339208921,0821,1871,1431,197808
10. Conifex Timber Inc CFXTF219244304353409470379157
11. Acadian Timber Corp ACAZF607556607165697067847778100100
12. Rainforest Resources Inc RRIF0.0100000000000
13. California-Engels Mining Company CAEN0.030.620.020.020.020.030.060.18
14. Keweenaw Land Association, Limited KEWL9.678.359.9411.7711.2112.1515.990
15. Homasote Company HMTC282625212019.412121210
16. MagIndustries Corp MAAFF000005.034.2415.0130292816.413.337.62


Revenue Growth

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP growth per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) SVCBY1.111.111.31.171.140.891.221.110.851.111.040.731.111.060.961.038.590.141.131.04
2. West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd WFTBF0.630.631.061.121.721.540.931.170.790.951.170.941.121.081.010.891.51.151.190.8
3. Canfor Corporation CFPZF0.820.821.081.22.230.91.0110.650.941.210.971.151.10.961.361.081.11.080.92
4. Boise Cascade Company BCC111.241.181.091.021.081.131.130.93
5. Louisiana-Pacific Corporation LPX0.80.80.821.181.240.910.860.760.810.771.310.981.261.220.930.981.181.221.030.82
6. Stella-Jones Inc STLJF1.151.151.511.261.421.411.171.241.441.121.151.261.181.451.181.031.131.02
7. Interfor Corporation IFSPF0.90.91.110.931.491.030.990.870.591.031.691.181.151.221.21.361.061.111.10.86
8. Norbord Inc OSB0.910.911.141.310.770.980.860.880.850.761.241.081.191.170.891.261.171.231.110.71
9. Western Forest Products Inc WFSTF0.760.760.831.121.21.051.351.160.750.821.211.251.110.990.971.211.10.961.050.67
10. Conifex Timber Inc CFXTF1.111.111.241.161.161.150.810.42
11. Acadian Timber Corp ACAZF1.261.260.741.081.180.911.071.010.951.270.911.011.281
12. Rainforest Resources Inc RRIF00NANNANNANNANNANNANNANNANNANNAN
13. California-Engels Mining Company CAEN18.718.70.030.951.231.142.312.72
14. Keweenaw Land Association, Limited KEWL0.860.861.191.180.951.081.320
15. Homasote Company HMTC0.930.930.970.830.990.951.080.9910
16. MagIndustries Corp MAAFFNANNANNANNANNANNANINF0.843.542.020.940.970.590.810.57