Footwear


I always look at economics of the business
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush and the question is how sure are you there are 2 in the bush and how long you have to wait to get them out
1. How many birds are in the bush?
2. When you gonna get them out?
3. How sure are you?
If interest rates are 15% roughly you've got 2 birds out of bush in 5 years equal to bird in the hand but if interest rates are 3% and you can get 2 birds out in 20 years it still makes sense to give up the bird in the hand because it's all gets back to discounting an interest rate. Often you don't know not only how many birds in the bush but in the case of internet companies there were not any birds in the bush but they still take the bird that you give them from the hand
Loop through all the subindustries and try to understand how many birds are in the bush from the perspective of economics of the business

Revenue

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP grow per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. NIKE, Inc NKE8,9959,4899,89310,69712,25313,74014,95516,32618,62719,17619,01420,86224,12825,31327,79930,60132,37634,35036,39739,11737,403
2. Skechers U.S.A., Inc SKX6759609448359201,0061,2051,3941,4411,4362,0071,6141,5671,8542,3873,1593,5774,1814,6635,243
3. Wolverine World Wide, Inc WWW7017208278899921,0611,1421,1991,2211,1011,2491,4091,6412,6912,7612,6922,4952,3502,2392,274
4. Deckers Outdoor Corporation DECK11491991212152653044496898131,0011,3771,4141,5571,8171,8751,7901,9032,0202,133
5. Steven Madden, Ltd SHOO2102493333323453834894494715236589691,2271,3141,3351,4051,4001,5461,6541,787
6. Crocs, Inc CROX1.1713.521093558477226467901,0061,1231,1931,1981,0911,0361,0241,0881,231
7. Rocky Brands, Inc RCKY10210389106132296263275260229253240228245286269260253253270
8. McRae Industries, Inc MCRAA605775777162696880626375769710410910910474820
9. Phoenix Footwear Group, Inc PXFG3347363976109141837519.9417.2615.916.7419.2222222018.682219.58


Revenue Growth

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP growth per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. NIKE, Inc NKE1.051.051.041.081.151.121.091.091.141.030.991.11.161.051.11.11.061.061.061.070.96
2. Skechers U.S.A., Inc SKX1.421.420.980.881.11.091.21.161.0311.40.80.971.181.291.321.131.171.121.12
3. Wolverine World Wide, Inc WWW1.031.031.151.071.121.071.081.051.020.91.131.131.161.641.030.970.930.940.951.02
4. Deckers Outdoor Corporation DECK0.80.81.081.221.771.231.151.471.541.181.231.381.031.11.171.030.951.061.061.06
5. Steven Madden, Ltd SHOO1.191.191.3311.041.111.280.921.051.111.261.471.271.071.021.0511.11.071.08
6. Crocs, Inc CROX11.6111.618.033.272.390.850.891.221.271.121.0610.910.950.991.061.13
7. Rocky Brands, Inc RCKY1.011.010.861.191.252.240.891.040.940.881.10.950.951.071.170.940.970.9711.07
8. McRae Industries, Inc MCRAA0.950.951.31.030.920.891.10.991.170.781.011.191.011.281.071.0510.960.711.110
9. Phoenix Footwear Group, Inc PXFG1.411.410.771.081.951.431.290.590.910.270.870.921.051.151.140.980.930.921.160.91