Distillers & Vintners


I always look at economics of the business
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush and the question is how sure are you there are 2 in the bush and how long you have to wait to get them out
1. How many birds are in the bush?
2. When you gonna get them out?
3. How sure are you?
If interest rates are 15% roughly you've got 2 birds out of bush in 5 years equal to bird in the hand but if interest rates are 3% and you can get 2 birds out in 20 years it still makes sense to give up the bird in the hand because it's all gets back to discounting an interest rate. Often you don't know not only how many birds in the bush but in the case of internet companies there were not any birds in the bush but they still take the bird that you give them from the hand
Loop through all the subindustries and try to understand how many birds are in the bush from the perspective of economics of the business

Revenue

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP grow per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. Diageo plc DEO17,95918,04813,96912,02312,11212,07413,42415,00916,10415,31814,61815,96416,88117,39017,54610,81310,48512,05012,16312,86711,752
2. Constellation Brands, Inc STZ2,3402,3972,8212,7323,5524,0884,6035,2163,7733,6553,3653,3322,6542,7964,8686,0286,5487,3327,5858,1168,344
3. Brown-Forman Corporation BF-B2,9913,1343,0892,9943,2483,3243,363
4. Brown-Forman Corporation BF-A2,9913,1343,0892,9943,2483,3243,363
5. Andrew Peller Limited ADWPF9285871011191391811972312132592742792842703393343433643820
6. MGP Ingredients, Inc MGPI229215192271275322368393276202248347323313328318347376363
7. Corby Spirit and Wine Limited CBYDF6365657990105101145159146152165144126129132140144147150153
8. Crimson Wine Group, Ltd CWGL0024394956586165636867
9. Diamond Estates Wines & Spirits Inc DWWEF18.6320293434280
10. Willamette Valley Vineyards, Inc WVVI6.727.035.997.369.3913.6714.9216.7116.0516.5617.3715.6612.5313.2715.1617.9419.43212325
11. Eastside Distilling, Inc EAST0.061.441.72.112.616.1215.6
12. Beam Therapeutics Inc BEAM5,4925,3185,3675,9135,8466,7358,2558,0527,1056,2057,1422,2653,0703,148000.02
13. Aristocrat Group Corp ASCC000.030.11
14. Panache Beverage Inc WDKA0.81.933.293.69


Revenue Growth

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP growth per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. Diageo plc DEO110.770.861.0111.111.121.070.950.951.091.061.031.010.620.971.151.011.060.91
2. Constellation Brands, Inc STZ1.021.021.180.971.31.151.131.130.720.970.920.990.81.051.741.241.091.121.031.071.03
3. Brown-Forman Corporation BF-B1.051.050.990.971.081.021.01
4. Brown-Forman Corporation BF-A1.051.050.990.971.081.021.01
5. Andrew Peller Limited ADWPF0.920.921.021.161.181.161.311.091.170.921.221.061.021.020.951.260.991.021.061.050
6. MGP Ingredients, Inc MGPI0.990.990.940.91.411.021.171.141.070.70.731.231.40.930.971.050.971.091.080.96
7. Corby Spirit and Wine Limited CBYDF1.031.0311.211.151.160.961.441.090.921.051.080.880.881.021.031.061.031.021.021.02
8. Crimson Wine Group, Ltd CWGLNANNANINF1.651.241.161.031.051.060.981.070.99
9. Diamond Estates Wines & Spirits Inc DWWEF1.091.091.441.1710.820
10. Willamette Valley Vineyards, Inc WVVI1.051.050.851.231.281.461.091.120.961.031.050.90.81.061.141.181.081.071.111.07
11. Eastside Distilling, Inc EAST22.4222.421.191.241.242.352.55
12. Beam Therapeutics Inc BEAM0.970.971.011.10.991.151.230.980.880.871.150.321.361.030NANINF
13. Aristocrat Group Corp ASCCNANNANINF4.31
14. Panache Beverage Inc WDKA2.422.421.71.12