Department Stores

I always look at economics of the business
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush and the question is how sure are you there are 2 in the bush and how long you have to wait to get them out
1. How many birds are in the bush?
2. When you gonna get them out?
3. How sure are you?
If interest rates are 15% roughly you've got 2 birds out of bush in 5 years equal to bird in the hand but if interest rates are 3% and you can get 2 birds out in 20 years it still makes sense to give up the bird in the hand because it's all gets back to discounting an interest rate. Often you don't know not only how many birds in the bush but in the case of internet companies there were not any birds in the bush but they still take the bird that you give them from the hand
Loop through all the subindustries and try to understand how many birds are in the bush from the perspective of economics of the business


Display GDP grow per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. Macy's, Inc M18,18118,75616,01215,78815,68216,08422,39026,97026,31324,89223,48925,00326,40527,68627,93128,10527,07925,77825,38125,36024,722
2. Kohl's Corporation KSS4,5576,1527,4899,12010,28211,70113,40215,54416,47416,38917,17818,39118,80419,27919,03119,02319,20418,68619,09520,22919,974
3. Nordstrom, Inc JWN5,2335,6595,7686,1166,6047,3047,9198,7949,1208,5738,6279,70010,87712,14812,54013,50614,43714,75715,47815,86015,524
4. Dillard's, Inc DDS8,9218,8188,3888,1707,8487,7327,6657,8047,3716,9886,2216,2546,4006,7526,6926,7806,7556,4186,4236,5036,343
5. The Bon-Ton Stores, Inc BONTQ7427837587519721,3791,3353,4563,4683,2253,0353,0462,9542,9792,8342,8232,7902,601
6. Sears Canada Inc SRSCQ4,2604,2254,1564,7985,1795,3505,0896,3024,6144,8974,9514,6064,3133,9923,4253,1462,614
7. Sears Holdings Corporation SHLDQ35,92537,02836,15130,76223,25319,70149,12453,01250,70346,77044,04343,32641,56739,85436,18831,19825,14622,13816,702

Revenue Growth

Display GDP growth per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. Macy's, Inc M1.031.030.850.990.991.031.391.20.980.950.941.
2. Kohl's Corporation KSS1.351.351.
3. Nordstrom, Inc JWN1.
4. Dillard's, Inc DDS0.990.990.950.970.960.990.991.020.940.950.891.
5. The Bon-Ton Stores, Inc BONTQ1.061.060.970.991.291.420.972.5910.930.9410.971.010.9510.990.93
6. Sears Canada Inc SRSCQ0.990.990.981.
7. Sears Holdings Corporation SHLDQ1.031.030.980.850.760.852.491.080.960.920.940.980.960.960.910.860.810.880.75