Copper


I always look at economics of the business
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush and the question is how sure are you there are 2 in the bush and how long you have to wait to get them out
1. How many birds are in the bush?
2. When you gonna get them out?
3. How sure are you?
If interest rates are 15% roughly you've got 2 birds out of bush in 5 years equal to bird in the hand but if interest rates are 3% and you can get 2 birds out in 20 years it still makes sense to give up the bird in the hand because it's all gets back to discounting an interest rate. Often you don't know not only how many birds in the bush but in the case of internet companies there were not any birds in the bush but they still take the bird that you give them from the hand
Loop through all the subindustries and try to understand how many birds are in the bush from the perspective of economics of the business

Revenue

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP grow per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX1,8691,8391,9102,2122,3724,1795,79116,93917,79615,04018,98220,88018,01020,92121,43815,87714,83016,40318,62814,402
2. Southern Copper Corporation SCCO7116586657981,7164,1135,4606,0864,8513,7345,1506,8196,6875,9535,7885,0465,3806,6557,0977,286
3. First Quantum Minerals Ltd FQVLF9113751601144441,0941,5261,7511,8922,3882,5762,9613,5583,5362,5112,6733,3103,9664,067
4. Lundin Mining Corporation LUNMF431925401,0608357468497847217289511,7021,5462,0781,7261,893
5. Taseko Mines Limited TGB0000075145220190180279248256274320289264378344329
6. Copper Mountain Mining Corporation CPPMF000065231219229242278304296288
7. Ero Copper Corp ERRPF0148233285
8. Imperial Metals Corporation IPMLF637030360.696118126418719124724826017711312942845336072
9. Surge Copper Corp GRJVF000000000000
10. Josemaria Resources Inc NGQRF0.010.080.020.020.030.020.070.170.18.823.920.220.120000000
11. Arena Minerals Inc AMRZF0000000000
12. Bell Copper Corporation BCUFF00000000


Revenue Growth

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP growth per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX0.980.981.041.161.071.761.392.931.050.851.261.10.861.161.020.740.931.111.140.77
2. Southern Copper Corporation SCCO0.920.921.011.22.152.41.331.110.80.771.381.320.980.890.970.871.071.241.071.03
3. First Quantum Minerals Ltd FQVLF1.511.510.371.171.893.912.461.41.151.081.261.081.151.20.990.711.061.241.21.03
4. Lundin Mining Corporation LUNMF4.454.452.811.960.790.891.140.920.921.011.311.790.911.340.831.1
5. Taseko Mines Limited TGBNANNANNANNANNANINF1.931.520.860.941.560.891.031.071.170.90.911.430.910.96
6. Copper Mountain Mining Corporation CPPMFNANNANNANNANINF3.540.951.041.061.151.090.970.97
7. Ero Copper Corp ERRPFINFINF1.571.22
8. Imperial Metals Corporation IPMLF1.111.110.431.210.0288.342.971.460.711.021.291.011.050.680.641.143.331.060.790.2
9. Surge Copper Corp GRJVFNANNANNANNANNANNANNANNANNANNANNANNAN
10. Josemaria Resources Inc NGQRF1.831.8312.670.250.971.690.723.142.380.5788.960.440.060.520NANNANNANNANNANNAN
11. Arena Minerals Inc AMRZFNANNANNANNANNANINF0.955.210NAN
12. Bell Copper Corporation BCUFFNANNANNANNANNANNANNANNAN