Construction Machinery & Heavy Trucks


I always look at economics of the business
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush and the question is how sure are you there are 2 in the bush and how long you have to wait to get them out
1. How many birds are in the bush?
2. When you gonna get them out?
3. How sure are you?
If interest rates are 15% roughly you've got 2 birds out of bush in 5 years equal to bird in the hand but if interest rates are 3% and you can get 2 birds out in 20 years it still makes sense to give up the bird in the hand because it's all gets back to discounting an interest rate. Often you don't know not only how many birds in the bush but in the case of internet companies there were not any birds in the bush but they still take the bird that you give them from the hand
Loop through all the subindustries and try to understand how many birds are in the bush from the perspective of economics of the business

Revenue

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP grow per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. Komatsu Ltd KMTUY10,2498,7017,7899,23611,50413,40914,54716,04522,43020,42215,39322,20624,04820,01918,97116,49401,802,9892,501,1072,725,2432,444,870
2. AB Volvo (publ) VLVLY13,77318,10121,41425,47531,55130,30937,87344,20238,55130,52639,18145,15346,66242,42936,162312,515301,914334,748390,834431,981
3. Caterpillar Inc CAT20,17520,45020,15222,76330,25136,33941,51744,95851,32432,39642,58860,13865,87555,65655,18447,01138,53745,46254,72253,800
4. PACCAR Inc PCAR7,9196,0897,2198,19511,39614,05716,45415,22214,9738,08711,26117,38518,14918,29918,99719,11517,03319,45645,63449,719
5. Cummins Inc CMI6,5975,6815,8536,2968,4389,91811,36213,04814,35410,80013,22618,04817,33417,30119,22119,11017,50920,78524,16523,901
6. China Yuchai International Limited CYD1712154245526747211,0091,3981,5191,9302,4562,4542,1592,6271.7913,73313,64316,19816,26318,016
7. Navistar International Corporation NAV8,4076,6796,7647,3209,71312,12414,20012,29514,72411,56912,14513,95812,94810,77510,80610,1408,1118,57010,25011,251
8. Oshkosh Corporation OSK1,3241,4451,7441,9262,2622,9603,4276,3077,1385,2959,8427,5858,1817,6656,8086,0986,2796,8307,7068,3826,857
9. Wabtec Corporation WAB1,0287846967188221,0341,0881,3601,5751,4021,5071,9682,3912,5663,0443,3082,9313,8824,3648,200
10. Alstom SA ALSMY15,53721,58920,44423,27320,51317,71826,58025,97727,9256,6206,8817,3067,9518,0728,201
11. Meritor, Inc MTOR5,1536,8056,8827,7888,0338,9039,1956,4497,1674,1083,5904,6224,4183,8263,7663,5053,1993,5904,1784,3883,044
12. Terex Corporation TEX2,0691,8132,7973,8975,0206,3807,6489,1389,8904,0315,0086,5057,3497,0877,3096,5433.5695,1274,353
13. The Greenbrier Companies, Inc GBX6195943064357291,0249541,2241,2901,0187631,2431,8171,7742,2042,6072,6952,1792,5643,0752,792
14. Trinity Industries, Inc TRN1,9041,3481,4871,4332,1982,9023,2193,8333,8832,5752,1893,0753,8124,3726,1706,3934,5883,6632,5093,005
15. NFI Group Inc NFYEF04179671,0949889248761,1981,4471,5392,2742,3822,5192,893
16. Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc ALSN1,9262,1632,1421,9272,1271,9861,8402,2622,7132,698
17. REV Group, Inc REVG1,7211,7351,9262,2682,3812,404
18. Wabash National Corporation WNC1,3328638208881,0411,2141,3121,1038363386401,1871,4621,6361,8632,0271,8451,7672,2672,319
19. The Manitowoc Company, Inc MTW8731,1171,4071,5711,9642,2542,9334,0054,5033,7833,1423,6523,9274,0453,8763,4361,6001,5811,8471,834
20. Federal Signal Corporation FSS1,1061,0721,0571,2071,1391,1571,2121,2689597537277968038519197687088991,0901,221
21. Astec Industries, Inc ASTE5214564814275056167118699747387719569369339769831,1471,1851,1721,170
22. Alamo Group Inc ALG2162462592793423684565045574465256116286778398808459121,0091,119
23. Blue Bird Corporation BLBD8569199329911,0251,019
24. Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc CVGI299288380754919697763459598832858748840825662755898901
25. Miller Industries, Inc MLR495423203206236352409400271238307413343404493541601615712818
26. Douglas Dynamics, Inc PLOW180174177209140194304400416475524572
27. Westport Fuel Systems Inc WPRT0.220.0519.6316.78252837527097129148227148164131103225247270305
28. Twin Disc, Incorporated TWIN178181179180186218243317332296228310356285264266166168241303247
29. FreightCar America, Inc RAIL2444829271,445817746245143487677290599773524409317230
30. Manitex International, Inc MNTX6.268.397.937.64461071065696142205245264387173213242225
31. Grande West Transportation Group Inc GWTNF3.41.364.68.21557025
32. Kelso Technologies Inc KIQ1.332.2313.132418.918.086.0612.7221
33. dynaCERT Inc DYFSF0.020000.250.091.06
34. Greenkraft, Inc GKIT2.182.512.340.851.150.43
35. Conrad Industries, Inc CNRD394741333765122169191144139246234303309264164189182
36. Manthey Redmond Corp MHYR000
37. Railpower Technologies Corp RLPHQ0.010.030.74202696
38. U.S. Energy Initiatives Corporation Inc USEI0.290.210.120.230.140.651.3800.030.10.03000
39. Wowjoint Holdings Limited BWOWF364524249.9815.25


Revenue Growth

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP growth per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. Komatsu Ltd KMTUY0.850.850.91.191.251.171.081.11.40.910.751.441.080.830.950.870INF1.391.090.9
2. AB Volvo (publ) VLVLY1.311.311.181.191.240.961.251.170.870.791.281.151.030.910.858.640.971.111.171.11
3. Caterpillar Inc CAT1.011.010.991.131.331.21.141.081.140.631.311.411.10.840.990.850.821.181.20.98
4. PACCAR Inc PCAR0.770.771.191.141.391.231.170.930.980.541.391.541.041.011.041.010.891.142.351.09
5. Cummins Inc CMI0.860.861.031.081.341.181.151.151.10.751.221.360.9611.110.990.921.191.160.99
6. China Yuchai International Limited CYD1.261.261.971.31.221.071.41.391.091.271.2710.881.2207690.740.991.1911.11
7. Navistar International Corporation NAV0.790.791.011.081.331.251.170.871.20.791.051.150.930.8310.940.81.061.21.1
8. Oshkosh Corporation OSK1.091.091.211.11.171.311.161.841.130.741.860.771.080.940.890.91.031.091.131.090.82
9. Wabtec Corporation WAB0.760.760.891.031.141.261.051.251.160.891.081.311.221.071.191.090.891.321.121.88
10. Alstom SA ALSMY1.391.390.951.140.880.861.50.981.070.241.041.061.091.021.02
11. Meritor, Inc MTOR1.321.321.011.131.031.111.030.71.110.570.871.290.960.870.980.930.911.121.161.050.69
12. Terex Corporation TEX0.880.881.541.391.291.271.21.191.080.411.241.31.130.961.030.9019.6374.630.85
13. The Greenbrier Companies, Inc GBX0.960.960.511.421.681.40.931.281.050.790.751.631.460.981.241.181.030.811.181.20.91
14. Trinity Industries, Inc TRN0.690.690.711.10.961.531.321.111.191.010.660.851.41.241.151.411.040.720.80.691.2
15. NFI Group Inc NFYEFINFINF2.321.130.90.940.951.371.211.061.481.051.061.15
16. Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc ALSN1.121.120.990.91.10.930.931.231.20.99
17. REV Group, Inc REVG1.011.011.111.181.051.01
18. Wabash National Corporation WNC0.650.650.951.081.171.171.080.840.760.41.91.851.231.121.141.090.910.961.281.02
19. The Manitowoc Company, Inc MTW1.281.281.261.121.251.151.31.371.120.840.831.161.081.030.960.890.470.991.170.99
20. Federal Signal Corporation FSS0.970.970.991.140.941.021.051.050.760.780.971.11.011.061.080.840.921.271.211.12
21. Astec Industries, Inc ASTE0.880.881.050.891.181.221.151.221.120.761.051.240.9811.051.011.171.030.991
22. Alamo Group Inc ALG1.141.141.051.081.231.081.241.11.10.81.171.171.031.081.241.050.961.081.111.11
23. Blue Bird Corporation BLBD1.071.071.011.061.030.99
24. Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc CVGI0.960.961.321.981.220.761.10.61.31.391.030.871.120.980.81.141.191
25. Miller Industries, Inc MLR0.850.850.850.481.011.151.491.160.980.680.881.291.340.831.181.221.11.111.021.161.15
26. Douglas Dynamics, Inc PLOW0.970.971.011.180.671.391.561.321.041.141.11.09
27. Westport Fuel Systems Inc WPRT0.230.233880.851.481.151.311.41.331.391.331.151.530.651.110.80.792.181.11.091.13
28. Twin Disc, Incorporated TWIN1.021.020.9911.041.171.111.31.050.890.771.361.150.80.931.010.631.011.431.260.82
29. FreightCar America, Inc RAIL1.971.971.921.560.570.910.330.583.411.390.432.061.290.680.780.770.73
30. Manitex International, Inc MNTX1.341.340.950.965.992.340.990.531.721.481.441.191.081.460.451.231.140.93
31. Grande West Transportation Group Inc GWTNF0.40.43.391.786.661.280.35
32. Kelso Technologies Inc KIQ1.681.685.881.810.790.430.752.11.62
33. dynaCERT Inc DYFSF00NANNANINF0.3711.62
34. Greenkraft, Inc GKIT1.141.144.940.071.360.38
35. Conrad Industries, Inc CNRD1.221.220.870.811.111.741.881.381.130.750.961.780.951.31.020.850.621.150.96
36. Manthey Redmond Corp MHYRNANNANNAN
37. Railpower Technologies Corp RLPHQ2.162.1628.627.271.273.74
38. U.S. Energy Initiatives Corporation Inc USEI0.710.710.61.860.64.692.110INF40.330NANNAN
39. Wowjoint Holdings Limited BWOWF1.231.230.540.980.421.53