Automotive Retail


I always look at economics of the business
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush and the question is how sure are you there are 2 in the bush and how long you have to wait to get them out
1. How many birds are in the bush?
2. When you gonna get them out?
3. How sure are you?
If interest rates are 15% roughly you've got 2 birds out of bush in 5 years equal to bird in the hand but if interest rates are 3% and you can get 2 birds out in 20 years it still makes sense to give up the bird in the hand because it's all gets back to discounting an interest rate. Often you don't know not only how many birds in the bush but in the case of internet companies there were not any birds in the bush but they still take the bird that you give them from the hand
Loop through all the subindustries and try to understand how many birds are in the bush from the perspective of economics of the business

Revenue

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP grow per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. Penske Automotive Group, Inc PAG4,8846,2217,4358,6719,38510,18211,24212,95811,6469,52310,71411,55613,14614,70517,17719,28520,11921,38722,78523,179
2. AutoNation, Inc AN20,61019,98919,47919,38119,42519,25318,98917,69214,13210,75812,46113,83215,66917,51819,10920,86221,60921,53521,41321,336
3. CarMax, Inc KMX2,0152,5013,2024,0674,7015,3626,3867,6248,3197,0287,6908,97610,00410,96312,57414,26915,15015,87517,12018,17320,320
4. Murphy USA Inc MUSA17,44217,69318,08317,21012,69911,59512,82714,36214,035
5. Lithia Motors, Inc LAD1,6591,8732,3772,5142,7462,9353,1733,2192,1381,7492,1320.72.532.993.27,8648,67810,08711,82112,673
6. Group 1 Automotive, Inc GPI3,5863,9964,2144,5195,4355,9706,0836,3935,6544,5265,5096,0807,4768,9199,93810,63310,88811,12411,60112,044
7. AutoZone, Inc AZO4,4834,8185,3265,4575,6375,7115,9486,1706,5236,8177,3638,0738,6049,1489,47510,18710,63610,88911,22111,86412,632
8. Sonic Automotive, Inc SAH6,0526,3377,0717,0347,3957,8857,9728,3376,0356,1326,8817,8718,3658,8439,1979,6249,7329,8679,95210,454
9. O'Reilly Automotive, Inc ORLY8901,0921,3121,5121,7212,0452,2832,5223,5774,8475,3985,7896,1826,6497,2167,9678,5938,9789,53610,150
10. Advance Auto Parts, Inc AAP2,2882,5183,2883,4943,7704,2654,6174,8445,1425,4135,9256,1706,2056,4949,8449,7379,5689,3749,5819,709
11. Asbury Automotive Group, Inc ABG4,0284,3184,4864,7774,9725,5415,7485,7134,6153,6513,9364,2774,6405,3355,8686,5886,5286,4576,8747,210
12. TravelCenters of America Inc TA2,0601,9351,8712,1762,6784,0754,7846,1667,6584,7005,9627,8897,9967,9457,7795,8085,5116,0526,2316,117
13. Camping World Holdings, Inc CWH2,6743,2793,5164,2804,7924,892
14. Carvana Co CVNA421303658591,9553,940
15. AutoCanada Inc AOCIF8386797398799891,1131,3261,9062,9042,8923,1023,1513,476
16. Monro, Inc MNRO2242232252582793373694174394765656376877328318949441,0221,1281,2001,257
17. Vroom, Inc VRM8551,192
18. Prospect Capital Corporation PBY2,3952,4182,1842,1722,1342,2732,2352,2722,1381,9281,9111,9892,0642,0912,0677122,085791792701658704624
19. America's Car-Mart, Inc CRMT237341119145164189214217250273309342430465489530568588612669745
20. Lazydays Holdings, Inc LAZY00615615608645
21. Renren Inc RENN77118176157834163202498350
22. Blink Charging Co BLNK000.060.260.472.793.963.332.52.692.76
23. Azure Holding Group Corp AZRH00.01
24. Pick-Ups Plus, Inc PUPS1.552.062.481.231.522.03
25. Abby, Inc ABBY00000.020.020.160.14
26. Green Automotive Company GACR000.323.03
27. CapSource Financial, Inc CPSO0.41.013.846.037.01213646


Revenue Growth

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP growth per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. Penske Automotive Group, Inc PAG1.271.271.21.171.081.081.11.150.90.821.131.081.141.121.171.121.041.061.071.02
2. AutoNation, Inc AN0.970.970.970.9910.990.990.930.80.761.161.111.131.121.091.091.0410.991
3. CarMax, Inc KMX1.241.241.281.271.161.141.191.191.090.841.091.171.111.11.151.131.061.051.081.061.12
4. Murphy USA Inc MUSA1.011.011.020.950.740.911.111.120.98
5. Lithia Motors, Inc LAD1.131.131.271.061.091.071.081.010.660.821.2203.631.191.072458.351.11.161.171.07
6. Group 1 Automotive, Inc GPI1.111.111.051.071.21.11.021.050.880.81.221.11.231.191.111.071.021.021.041.04
7. AutoZone, Inc AZO1.071.071.111.021.031.011.041.041.061.051.081.11.071.061.041.081.041.021.031.061.06
8. Sonic Automotive, Inc SAH1.051.051.120.991.051.071.011.050.721.021.121.141.061.061.041.051.011.011.011.05
9. O'Reilly Automotive, Inc ORLY1.231.231.21.151.141.191.121.11.421.361.111.071.071.081.091.11.081.041.061.06
10. Advance Auto Parts, Inc AAP1.11.11.311.061.081.131.081.051.061.051.091.041.011.051.520.990.980.981.021.01
11. Asbury Automotive Group, Inc ABG1.071.071.041.061.041.111.040.990.810.791.081.091.091.151.11.120.990.991.061.05
12. TravelCenters of America Inc TA0.940.940.971.161.231.521.171.291.240.611.271.321.010.990.980.750.951.11.030.98
13. Camping World Holdings, Inc CWH1.231.231.071.221.121.02
14. Carvana Co CVNA3.133.132.82.352.282.01
15. AutoCanada Inc AOCIF0.810.811.091.191.131.121.191.441.5211.071.021.1
16. Monro, Inc MNRO111.011.151.081.211.091.131.051.081.191.131.081.071.141.081.051.081.11.061.05
17. Vroom, Inc VRM1.391.39
18. Prospect Capital Corporation PBY1.011.010.90.990.981.060.981.020.940.90.991.041.041.010.990.342.930.3810.890.941.070.89
19. America's Car-Mart, Inc CRMT1.441.440.351.221.131.161.131.011.151.091.131.111.261.081.051.081.071.031.041.091.11
20. Lazydays Holdings, Inc LAZYNANNANINF10.991.06
21. Renren Inc RENN1.541.541.490.890.530.51.543.192.470.7
22. Blink Charging Co BLNKNANNANINF4.161.815.991.420.840.751.071.03
23. Azure Holding Group Corp AZRHINFINF
24. Pick-Ups Plus, Inc PUPS1.331.331.20.51.231.33
25. Abby, Inc ABBYNANNANNANNANINF0.6310.590.89
26. Green Automotive Company GACRNANNANINF9.44
27. CapSource Financial, Inc CPSO2.52.53.821.571.162.931.761.27