Apparel Retail


I always look at economics of the business
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush and the question is how sure are you there are 2 in the bush and how long you have to wait to get them out
1. How many birds are in the bush?
2. When you gonna get them out?
3. How sure are you?
If interest rates are 15% roughly you've got 2 birds out of bush in 5 years equal to bird in the hand but if interest rates are 3% and you can get 2 birds out in 20 years it still makes sense to give up the bird in the hand because it's all gets back to discounting an interest rate. Often you don't know not only how many birds in the bush but in the case of internet companies there were not any birds in the bush but they still take the bird that you give them from the hand
Loop through all the subindustries and try to understand how many birds are in the bush from the perspective of economics of the business

Revenue

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP grow per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. The TJX Companies, Inc TJX8,7959,57910,70911,98113,32814,91316,05817,40518,64719,00020,28821,94223,19125,87827,42329,07830,94533,18435,86538,97341,717
2. The Gap, Inc GPS11,63513,67313,84814,45515,85416,26716,02315,94315,76314,52614,19714,66414,54915,65116,14816,43515,79715,51615,85516,58016,383
3. Ross Stores, Inc ROST2,4692,7092,9873,5313,9214,2404,9445,5705,9756,4867,1847,8668,6089,72110,23011,04211,94012,86714,13514,98416,039
4. L Brands, Inc LB9,72310,1059,3638,4458,9349,4089,66910,67110,0869,0438,6329,61310,36410,45910,77311,45412,15412,57412,63213,23712,914
5. Foot Locker, Inc FL4,6474,3564,3794,5094,7795,3555,6535,7505,4375,2374,8545,0495,6236,1826,5057,1517,4127,7667,7827,9398,005
6. Burlington Stores, Inc BURL3,8884,1664,4624,8505,1305,5916,1106,6687,286
7. American Eagle Outfitters, Inc AEO8321,0931,3721,4631,5201,8812,3092,7943,0552,9892,9912,9663,1603,4763,3063,2833,5223,6103,7964,0364,308
8. Urban Outfitters, Inc URBN2762953494235488281,0921,2251,5081,8351,9382,2742,4742,7953,0873,3233,4453,5463,6163,9513,984
9. Abercrombie & Fitch Co ANF1,0421,2381,3651,5961,7082,0212,7853,3183,7503,5402,9293,4694,1584,5114,1173,7443,5193,3273,4933,5903,623
10. Designer Brands Inc DBI1,6842,2282,3022,4582,6002,7462,9223,0771,8781,4631,6031,8222,0242,2582,3692,4962,6202,7112,8003,1843,493
11. Caleres, Inc CAL1,5941,6851,7561,8411,8321,9422,2922,4712,3602,2762,2422,5042,5832,5982,5132,5722,5772,5792,7862,8352,922
12. Guess', Inc GES7416415445976828881,1201,6591,9932,0312,4872,6882,6592,5702,4182,2042,2092,3642,6102,678
13. Genesco Inc GCO5746807478288371,1131,2841,4601,5021,5521,5741,7902,2922,6052,6252,8603,0222,8682,9072,1892,197
14. Chico's FAS, Inc CHS1552593785317691,0671,4051,6461,7141,5821,7131,9052,1962,5812,5862,6752,6422,4762,2822,1312,038
15. Express, Inc EXPR1,7371,7211,9062,0732,1482,2192,1652,3502,1932,1382,1162,019
16. The Children's Place, Inc PLCE4225876576717981,1581,6692,0182,1631,6301,6441,6741,7161,8091,7661,7611,7261,7851,8701,9381,871
17. Stein Mart, Inc SMRT1,2071,3201,4091,3551,4601,4821,5011,4581,3261,2191,1821,1601,2321,2641,3221,3601,3611,3191,2731,236
18. Shoe Carnival, Inc SCVL3404184775205585906566826596486827397638558859409841,0011,0191,0301,037
19. Zumiez Inc ZUMZ1181542062983814094084795566697248128048369279791,034
20. Reitmans (Canada) Limited RTMAF3303463574956377368508861,0548469951,0691,0161,003864747937952964923870
21. The Buckle, Inc BKE3763933884014234715015306207928989501,0631,1241,1281,1531,120975913886900
22. The Cato Corporation CATO6056697067487477908368768468588849269319449209871,011957850830825
23. Boot Barn Holdings, Inc BOOT233346403569630678777846
24. Citi Trends, Inc CTRN157203290382438488552623641655622671684695755770782
25. J.Jill, Inc JILL483562639698698706706691691
26. Tilly's, Inc TLYS333401467496518551569577598619
27. Destination XL Group, Inc DXLG192195195398430365421468464444395394398400388414442450468474474
28. Francesca's Holdings Corporation FRAN79135204296340378439487472428408
29. Roots Corporation RROTF1842823263290
30. Birks Group Inc BGI216239274294315271255271302293281188167151147151169
31. bebe stores, inc BEBE2422913163243725105796716886035094935314854254283940000
32. Tandy Leather Factory, Inc TLF30374042465155555354606673788384838283
33. Cache, Inc CACH176180199216247266279274266220207224224217
34. Qingdao Footwear, Inc QING8.5913.917.8621


Revenue Growth

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP growth per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. The TJX Companies, Inc TJX1.091.091.121.121.111.121.081.081.071.021.071.081.061.121.061.061.061.071.081.091.07
2. The Gap, Inc GPS1.181.181.011.041.11.030.9910.990.920.981.030.991.081.031.020.960.981.021.050.99
3. Ross Stores, Inc ROST1.11.11.11.181.111.081.171.131.071.091.111.091.091.131.051.081.081.081.11.061.07
4. L Brands, Inc LB1.041.040.930.91.061.051.031.10.950.90.951.111.081.011.031.061.061.0311.050.98
5. Foot Locker, Inc FL0.940.941.011.031.061.121.061.020.950.960.931.041.111.11.051.11.041.0511.021.01
6. Burlington Stores, Inc BURL1.071.071.071.091.061.091.091.091.09
7. American Eagle Outfitters, Inc AEO1.311.311.251.071.041.241.231.211.090.9810.991.071.10.950.991.071.021.051.061.07
8. Urban Outfitters, Inc URBN1.071.071.181.211.31.511.321.121.231.221.061.171.091.131.11.081.041.031.021.091.01
9. Abercrombie & Fitch Co ANF1.191.191.11.171.071.181.381.191.130.940.831.181.21.080.910.910.940.951.051.031.01
10. Designer Brands Inc DBI1.321.321.031.071.061.061.061.050.610.781.11.141.111.121.051.051.051.031.031.141.1
11. Caleres, Inc CAL1.061.061.041.050.991.061.181.080.960.960.981.121.031.010.971.02111.081.021.03
12. Guess', Inc GES0.860.860.851.11.141.31.261.481.21.021.221.080.990.970.940.9111.071.11.03
13. Genesco Inc GCO1.191.191.11.111.011.331.151.141.031.031.011.141.281.141.011.091.060.951.010.751
14. Chico's FAS, Inc CHS1.671.671.461.41.451.391.321.171.040.921.081.111.151.1811.030.990.940.920.930.96
15. Express, Inc EXPR0.990.991.111.091.041.030.981.090.930.980.990.95
16. The Children's Place, Inc PLCE1.391.391.121.021.191.451.441.211.070.751.011.021.031.050.9810.981.031.051.040.97
17. Stein Mart, Inc SMRT1.091.091.070.961.081.021.010.970.910.920.970.981.061.031.051.0310.970.970.97
18. Shoe Carnival, Inc SCVL1.231.231.141.091.071.061.111.040.970.981.051.081.031.121.031.061.051.021.021.011.01
19. Zumiez Inc ZUMZ1.31.31.341.451.281.0711.171.161.21.081.120.991.041.111.061.06
20. Reitmans (Canada) Limited RTMAF1.051.051.031.391.291.151.161.041.190.81.181.070.950.990.860.871.251.021.010.960.94
21. The Buckle, Inc BKE1.051.050.991.031.051.111.061.061.171.281.131.061.121.0611.020.970.870.940.971.02
22. The Cato Corporation CATO1.111.111.051.0611.061.061.050.971.011.031.051.011.010.971.071.020.950.890.980.99
23. Boot Barn Holdings, Inc BOOT1.481.481.161.411.111.081.151.09
24. Citi Trends, Inc CTRN1.291.291.421.321.151.121.131.131.031.020.951.081.021.021.091.021.02
25. J.Jill, Inc JILL1.161.161.141.0911.0110.981
26. Tilly's, Inc TLYS1.21.21.171.061.051.061.031.011.041.03
27. Destination XL Group, Inc DXLG1.011.0112.041.080.851.151.110.990.960.8911.0110.971.071.071.021.041.011
28. Francesca's Holdings Corporation FRAN1.71.71.511.451.151.111.161.110.970.910.95
29. Roots Corporation RROTF1.531.531.161.010
30. Birks Group Inc BGI1.111.111.151.071.070.860.941.061.120.970.960.670.890.910.971.031.12
31. bebe stores, inc BEBE1.21.21.091.021.151.371.141.161.020.880.840.971.080.910.881.010.920NANNANNAN
32. Tandy Leather Factory, Inc TLF1.241.241.071.051.111.11.0910.961.021.11.11.11.081.071.010.990.991.01
33. Cache, Inc CACH1.021.021.111.081.141.081.050.980.970.830.941.0810.97
34. Qingdao Footwear, Inc QING1.621.621.281.19