Aluminum


I always look at economics of the business
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush and the question is how sure are you there are 2 in the bush and how long you have to wait to get them out
1. How many birds are in the bush?
2. When you gonna get them out?
3. How sure are you?
If interest rates are 15% roughly you've got 2 birds out of bush in 5 years equal to bird in the hand but if interest rates are 3% and you can get 2 birds out in 20 years it still makes sense to give up the bird in the hand because it's all gets back to discounting an interest rate. Often you don't know not only how many birds in the bush but in the case of internet companies there were not any birds in the bush but they still take the bird that you give them from the hand
Loop through all the subindustries and try to understand how many birds are in the bush from the perspective of economics of the business

Revenue

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP grow per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. Aluminum Corporation of China Limited ACH2,2012,0022,0912,8753,9824,6877,93110,44311,24610,29418,33323,17723,99327,9883,682123,475144,229181,020180,241190,074
2. Norsk Hydro ASA NHYDY19,57617,03423,48625,77025,56625,82931,50717,36612,70811,64312,86115,32211,54010,69610,4139,94481,953109,220159,377149,766
3. Alcoa Corporation AA12,57313,14711,1999,31811,65213,40310,433
4. Constellium SE CSTM4,7604,8164,4365,1534,7435,2375,6865,907
5. Century Aluminum Company CENX4296557117821,0611,1321,5591,7981,9718991,1691,3561,2721,4541,9311,9501,3191,5891,8931,837
6. Kaiser Aluminum Corporation KALU2,1701,7331,4701,3659421,0901,3571,5051,5089871,0791,3011,3601,2981,3561,3921,3311,3981,5861,514
7. Alumina Limited AWCMY1,7061,2011,24900000000000.30.10.10.830.772.273.57
8. Cymat Technologies Ltd CYMHF0.530.260.110.180.250.320.491.952.930.840.821.952.830.920.721.611.352.753.052.640
9. Elah Holdings, Inc ELLH1,5814885989041,1551,2537392.932.971.550.442144322.11,1461,2111,3080.10.1
10. Volcan Holdings, Inc VOHO0000
11. Orbite Technologies Inc EORBF00000000
12. Ormet Corporation ORMTQ550419433585
13. Noranda Aluminum Holding Corporation NORNQ1,3951,2667701,2951,5601,3951,3441,3551,228
14. Mansfelder Metals Ltd MNSF0.80.250.720.080.045.7278100


Revenue Growth

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP growth per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. Aluminum Corporation of China Limited ACH0.910.911.041.371.381.181.691.321.080.921.781.261.041.170.1333.541.171.2611.05
2. Norsk Hydro ASA NHYDY0.870.871.381.10.991.011.220.550.730.921.11.190.750.930.970.958.241.331.460.94
3. Alcoa Corporation AA1.051.050.850.831.251.150.78
4. Constellium SE CSTM1.011.010.921.160.921.11.091.04
5. Century Aluminum Company CENX1.531.531.091.11.361.071.381.151.10.461.31.160.941.141.331.010.681.21.190.97
6. Kaiser Aluminum Corporation KALU0.80.80.850.930.691.161.251.1110.651.091.211.050.951.051.030.961.051.130.95
7. Alumina Limited AWCMY0.70.71.040NANNANNANNANNANNANNANNANNANINF0.3318.290.932.951.57
8. Cymat Technologies Ltd CYMHF0.490.490.441.561.411.281.553.971.50.290.982.371.450.320.782.240.842.031.110.870
9. Elah Holdings, Inc ELLH0.310.311.231.511.281.090.5901.020.520.28472.130.720.07545.521.061.0801
10. Volcan Holdings, Inc VOHONANNANNANNAN
11. Orbite Technologies Inc EORBFNANNANNANNANNANNANNANNAN
12. Ormet Corporation ORMTQ0.760.761.031.35
13. Noranda Aluminum Holding Corporation NORNQ0.910.910.611.681.20.890.961.010.91
14. Mansfelder Metals Ltd MNSF0.310.312.890.110.48146.7413.651.28