Airlines


I always look at economics of the business
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush and the question is how sure are you there are 2 in the bush and how long you have to wait to get them out
1. How many birds are in the bush?
2. When you gonna get them out?
3. How sure are you?
If interest rates are 15% roughly you've got 2 birds out of bush in 5 years equal to bird in the hand but if interest rates are 3% and you can get 2 birds out in 20 years it still makes sense to give up the bird in the hand because it's all gets back to discounting an interest rate. Often you don't know not only how many birds in the bush but in the case of internet companies there were not any birds in the bush but they still take the bird that you give them from the hand
Loop through all the subindustries and try to understand how many birds are in the bush from the perspective of economics of the business

Revenue

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP grow per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. China Southern Airlines Company Limited ZNH1,8342,0392,1762,1112,8974,7455,9227,4728,1048,02911,59014,36215,97316,27973111,652114,981127,806143,623154,322
2. China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited CEA1,3551,4681,6071,7252,5613,4024,8045,8296,0205,71211,18213,09313,68414,57737793,96998,904102,475115,278120,986
3. Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL16,74113,87913,30513,30315,00216,19117,36018,96622,69728,06331,75535,11536,67037,77340,36240,70439,63941,24444,43847,007
4. American Airlines Group Inc AAL19,70318,96317,29917,44018,64520,71222,56322,89623,76619,91722,17023,97924,85526,74342,65040,99040,18042,20744,54145,768
5. United Airlines Holdings, Inc UAL19,35216,13814,28613,72416,39117,37919,34020,09820,19416,33523,22937,00337,15238,27938,90137,86436,55637,73641,30343,259
6. Deutsche Lufthansa AG DLAKY15,55618,80721,04823,91222,22027,20233,33035,35432,83337,18638,19940,49242,17536,93134,82031,66035,57935,84436,424
7. Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V VLRS90199395218,18023,51224,84527,30534,826
8. Air France-KLM SA AFLYY13,82915,16524,74226,04130,86338,11931,79328,40333,50324,74633,82135,17830,16827,90124,84625,78426,51527,189
9. International Consolidated Airlines Group, S.A ICAGY13,16511,88512,13913,91014,75714,81016,71717,37912,70312,14010,28620,89023,88925,73224,40824,82422,56722,97224,40625,506
10. Southwest Airlines Co LUV5,6505,5555,4865,9376,5307,5849,0869,86111,02310,35012,10415,65817,08817,69918,60519,82020,42521,17121,96522,428
11. Gol Linhas Aéreas Inteligentes S.A GOL1914827391,1401,7782,7882,7643,4294,1974,0483,9583,7943,7909,7789,86710,32911,41113,865
12. Azul S.A AZUL5,2342,1846,2586,6707,7909,15311,442
13. Alaska Air Group, Inc ALK2,1772,1532,2242,4452,7242,9753,3343,5063,6203,4003,8324,3184,6575,1565,3685,5985,9317,9338,2648,781
14. JetBlue Airways Corporation JBLU1053206359981,2681,7012,3632,8423,3883,2923,7794,5044,9825,4415,8176,4166,6327,0157,6588,094
15. Ryanair Holdings plc RYAAY3544295449181,3201,7332,0552,9924,2893,9014,0425,1485,7676,2596,9396,9936,5366,6487,1517,6978,495
16. Spirit Airlines, Inc SAVE7007811,0711,3181,6541,9322,1412,3222,6483,3233,831
17. SkyWest, Inc SKYW5316027748881,1561,9643,1153,3743,4962,6102,7483,6553,5343,2983,2373,0963,1213,2043,2222,972
18. Hawaiian Holdings, Inc HA60761263215705048889831,2111,1831,3101,6501,9622,1562,3152,3172,4512,6962,8002,832
19. Copa Holdings, S.A CPA3013424006098511,0271,2891,2531,4151,8312,2492,6082,7052,2542,2192,5222,6782,707
20. Allegiant Travel Company ALGT1332433615045586645155869961,1371,2621,3631,5041,6671,841
21. Chorus Aviation Inc CHRRF08851,3451,4011,4911,6321,7241,5741,4341,5451,2771,3521,3531,366
22. Exchange Income Corporation EIFZF731061302012455008079704668078911,0131,2031,341
23. Mesa Air Group, Inc MESA1,3231,326506588644682723545
24. River Hawk Aviation, Inc RHWI10.992.711.42000.1105.32
25. ACE Aviation Holdings Inc ACAVF6,2226,0376,2486,4527,3988,4319,14110,8629,1067,8000000000
26. Great Lakes Aviation, Ltd GLUX13410185767676889811612212512413811759


Revenue Growth

200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Display GDP growth per year to compare with Revenue Change
1. China Southern Airlines Company Limited ZNH1.111.111.070.971.371.641.251.261.080.991.441.241.111.02015251.031.111.121.07
2. China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited CEA1.081.081.091.071.481.331.411.211.030.951.961.171.051.070.032491.051.041.121.05
3. Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL0.830.830.9611.131.081.071.091.21.241.131.111.041.031.071.010.971.041.081.06
4. American Airlines Group Inc AAL0.960.960.911.011.071.111.091.011.040.841.111.081.041.081.590.960.981.051.061.03
5. United Airlines Holdings, Inc UAL0.830.830.890.961.191.061.111.0410.811.421.5911.031.020.970.971.031.091.05
6. Deutsche Lufthansa AG DLAKY1.211.211.121.140.931.221.231.060.931.131.031.061.040.880.940.911.121.011.02
7. Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V VLRS1.11.10.9619.11.291.061.11.28
8. Air France-KLM SA AFLYY1.11.11.631.051.191.240.830.891.180.741.371.040.860.920.891.041.031.03
9. International Consolidated Airlines Group, S.A ICAGY0.920.920.91.021.151.0611.131.040.730.960.852.031.141.080.951.020.911.021.061.05
10. Southwest Airlines Co LUV0.980.980.991.081.11.161.21.091.120.941.171.291.091.041.051.071.031.041.041.02
11. Gol Linhas Aéreas Inteligentes S.A GOL2.512.511.531.541.561.570.991.241.220.960.980.9612.581.011.051.11.21
12. Azul S.A AZUL0.420.422.871.071.171.181.25
13. Alaska Air Group, Inc ALK0.990.991.031.11.111.091.121.051.030.941.131.131.081.111.041.041.061.341.041.06
14. JetBlue Airways Corporation JBLU3.063.061.981.571.271.341.391.21.190.971.151.191.111.091.071.11.031.061.091.06
15. Ryanair Holdings plc RYAAY1.211.211.271.691.441.311.191.461.430.911.041.271.121.091.111.010.931.021.081.081.1
16. Spirit Airlines, Inc SAVE1.121.121.371.231.251.171.111.081.141.261.15
17. SkyWest, Inc SKYW1.121.121.131.291.151.31.71.591.081.040.751.051.330.970.930.980.961.011.031.010.92
18. Hawaiian Holdings, Inc HA1.011.011.030.250INF1.761.111.230.981.111.261.191.11.0711.061.11.041.01
19. Copa Holdings, S.A CPA1.141.141.171.521.41.211.250.971.131.291.231.161.040.830.981.141.061.01
20. Allegiant Travel Company ALGT1.841.841.481.41.111.190.781.141.71.141.111.081.11.111.1
21. Chorus Aviation Inc CHRRFINFINF1.521.041.061.11.060.910.911.080.831.0611.01
22. Exchange Income Corporation EIFZF1.451.451.221.551.222.041.611.20.481.731.11.141.191.11
23. Mesa Air Group, Inc MESA110.381.161.091.061.060.75
24. River Hawk Aviation, Inc RHWI0.250.250.520NANINF0INF
25. ACE Aviation Holdings Inc ACAVF0.970.971.031.031.151.141.081.190.840.860NANNANNANNANNANNAN
26. Great Lakes Aviation, Ltd GLUX0.760.760.840.891.0111.151.121.181.051.030.991.110.850.5